Box Office Forecast: Can Harry Potter Hold On In Week Three?

A new month might not mean a new box office leader. With The Warrior’s Way being the only wide release this first weekend in December, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I could be able to hold on to that top spot. It did seem Tangled had a fair shot of stealing that stop, but even with that second-week 60% plunge, Potter not only took Thanksgiving weekend from Tangled, but every day since then. Even on HSX.com, Potter stock is up $0.40 while Tangled is on the downfall, dropping $0.79.

It’s basically a free-for-all for the rest of the lot. Hitting just 1,622 theaters with little buzz, it’s unlikely The Warrior’s Way will manage to secure the third spot. Black Swan is only set to open in 18 theaters, yet it’s still a pricier stock at $21.87 on HSX compared to The Warrior’s Way’s $12.03 and Black Swan is nearly matching The Warrior’s Way in total number of searches on Flixster.

Megamind seems to be holding steady, only dropping 21.5% last weekend, so it should have no problem securing #3 with about $8 million. Then there’s Burlesque, which, despite a critical beating, still managed to please moviegoers. Word-of-mouth could be good enough to keep the film afloat in week two. Unstoppable will be in a very similar position. After dropping 42.7% from week one to two, the film only fell 12.1% in week three. Again, good word-of-mouth might be enough to keep Unstoppable in the top five.

Should Potter and Tangled take #1 and #2 and then Megamind, Unstoppable and Burlesque #3, #4 and #5 respectively, that would leave newcomer The Warrior’s Way in the 6^th position. From there, the old timers will likely follow suit as they were positioned last weekend – Love and Other Drugs will come in seventh, Faster in eighth and Due Date in ninth. Rather than go with The Next Three Days for #10, this list will conclude with Danny Boyle’s 127 Hours. The film has had a fantastic limited run so far and the theater count continues to rise. After making the jump from 108 to 293, 127 Hours saw a 86.5% increase. This weekend, it’s getting an additional 140 theaters and if it continues to perform, that could be just enough to allow it to snag close to $4 million and maybe even put it ahead of Paul Haggis’ The Next Three Days.

The Shockya.com Predictions

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I

2. Tangled

3. Megamind

4. Unstoppable

5. Burlesque

6. The Warrior’s Way

7. Love and Other Drugs

8. Faster

9. Due Date

10. 127 Hours

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo, HSX.com, Flixster)