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Box Office Forecast: TRON: Legacy To Derez The Competition

After a rather tame weekend during which The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader easily topped the competition despite a rather weak domestic opening, this one has a few more selections vying for top honors. We’ve got three films making wide debuts and another two expanding significantly.

Of the newcomers, TRON: Legacy is likely to make the biggest impact. It may be opening in about 100 less theaters than Yogi Bear, but 234 of those theaters are IMAX. Combine that hefty ticket price with all of the theaters showing the film in non-IMAX 3D and TRON already has one heck of a head start. Odds are, TRON could hold on through the holiday, too. Now that Harry Potter and Narnia are out of the way, it’s really the only effect-heavy film hitting theaters for quite a while.

Yogi Bear is an interesting subject because it could really go either way. It could follow in the footsteps of Alvin and the Chipmunks and open big with $44.3 million or it could be an absolute cartoon-to-film disaster à la Marmaduke and take in just $11.6 million. I’m going to side with the former not only because Yogi Bear is opening the same time of year that Alvin and the Chipmunks hit theaters, but also because Marmaduke had some serious competition, namely Shrek Forever After, whereas Yogi Bear will really be the only option for younger moviegoers through the holiday.

How Do You Know may have a pretty powerful cast, but it likely won’t be enough for it to trump the competition. In fact, How Do You Know might have a tough time even making it into the top five. That one is only being released in 2,500 theaters as compared to TRON’s 3,300 and Yogi Bear’s 3,400+, and then The Fighter is adding on an additional 2,196, bringing its total to 2,200. Considering The Fighter opened with a wildly impressive $75,003 per theater average, rising above How Do You Know shouldn’t be a problem.

Another expansion that threatens to crack the top five is Black Swan. Last weekend, in just 90 theaters, it pulled in $3.3 million. This weekend, it’s adding on another 860 locations, so even if its per theater average drops from $36,726 to as low as $8,000, we’re still talking about a potential $7 million weekend.

As for the veterans, if The Voyage of the Dawn Treader follows a similar path to Prince Caspian, it could experience a 58% drop in week two, which could leave it with just $13 million. Harry Potter is on a bit of a landslide and will likely see its intake cut in half, possibly earning around $4 million in week five. Tangled is tumbling as well, but at a far slower pace, so that one still stands a chance at earning maybe another $10 million in its fourth week, especially as the kids start gearing up for the holiday.

The Tourist had a rough opening and its second week in theaters likely won’t be much better. Even if it holds up as well as Angelina Jolie’s last movie, Salt, which had a far better debut, it’ll still only manage to pull in about $8 million. As for that final spot on the top ten, Megamind, Due Date, Love and Other Drugs and Burlesque will likely all fall off the radar, leaving the tenth spot an easy win for Unstoppable. Unstoppable has held on pretty strong over the past few weeks while Love and Other Drugs and Burlesque are experiencing faster declines and Megamind and Due Date are simply over and done with.

Shockya.com Predictions:

1. TRON: Legacy

2. Yogi Bear

3. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader

4. The Fighter

5. How Do You Know

6. Tangled

7. The Tourist

8. The Black Swan

9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I

10. Unstoppable

By Perri Nemiroff

TRON: Legacy

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Film producer and director best known for her work in movies such as FaceTime, Trevor, and The Professor. She has worked as an online movie blogger and reporter for sites such as CinemaBlend.com, ComingSoon.net, Shockya, and MTV's Movies Blog.

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