Box Office Forecast: True Grit Could Finally Come Out On Top

It doesn’t look as though the year will start off with a bang considering Season of the Witch is the sole new wide release. If that one starts off anything like Cage’s last supernatural film, The Sorcerer’s Apprentice, we’re looking at a mere $17 million opening. However, that film had the benefit of a few other notable names like Jay Baruchel and Alfred Molina, whereas with Season of the Witch, Cage is the main draw. On top of that, The Sorcerer’s Apprentice opened with a theater count of 3,504 while Season of the Witch is getting just 2,816. On the bright side, Season of the Witch is opening unopposed, so perhaps the lack of options will boost the draw. Considering all of these factors, Season of the Witch looks as if it’ll post about $13 million this weekend.

The only other new film we’ll see creep into the top ten is Country Strong. That one hit 2 theaters on Christmas weekend where it performed decently, taking in $30,452 the first weekend and another $41,506 the second. Even with the so-so start, poor reviews could certainly deter some from checking this one out. Back in 2006, Dreamgirls ended its first wide weekend with $14.1 million in 852 theaters. Country Song will be lucky to earn half as much in twice as many theaters.

Little Fockers and True Grit were neck and neck last weekend, but the Oscar buzz will likely be enough to finally give True Grit the lead. Like Meet the Fockers, Little Fockers could take a 30% hit in week three, leaving it with about $17 million. As for True Grit, that loss will be less, perhaps only 25%, giving it $18 million. From there, it should be more of the same, with Black Swan and The King’s Speech each likely gaining a spot thanks to their Oscar buzz and some additional screens.

TRON: Legacy will continue to drop, probably by 40% this time around, leaving it with about $11 million. As for Yogi Bear, while it did see a nice 50% boost last weekend, the holidays are over, the kids are back in school and it could plummet – big time. Should it drop 50%, Yogi Bear will earn about $6 million in week four, putting it just behind Country Strong.

The Fighter should only take a minor 30% tumble as should Black Swan. It should be a tight fight between those two and another Oscar potential, The King’s Speech, all of which could earn $5 or $6 million. The last spot will be a toss-up between Tangled and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, but Narnia, which has been on a surprisingly slow decline, will likely be the one to prevail.

Shockya.com Predictions:

1. True Grit

2. Little Fockers

3. Season of the Witch

4. TRON: Legacy

5. Country Song

6. Yogi Bear

7. The Fighter

8. Black Swan

9. The King’s Speech

10. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)