With one weekend left in the month of February, we should have just one more weekend to go until the numbers pick up, we hope. To close out the month, we’re getting two wide releases both of which should find themselves in either position one or two, but neither of which are likely to put up impressive numbers. Hall Pass looks to be this year’s Hot Tub Time Machine. That one earned $14 million in 2,754 theaters its first week out and Hall Pass should take in about the same, if not a bit more thanks to an additional 196 theaters. Owen Wilson just isn’t bankable unless he’s surrounded by an all-star cast like in Little Fockers. But, then again, Paul Rudd, Reese Witherspoon and Jack Nicolson didn’t help his track record with How Do You Know either. What it should come down to for Hall Pass is that it’s the only comedy hitting theaters this weekend, so folks might opt to check it out based on sheer lack of options. However, being the only new comedy won’t be enough for the film to cross the $20 million mark and it should come in with around $17 million.
Our other newcomer is Drive Angry. Nicolas Cage’s last release, Season of the Witch, had a lackluster start earning just $10.6 million opening week in 2,816 theaters. Drive Angry is kicking off its run in just 2,290, but might benefit not only from the higher cost of 3D tickets, but from a stronger supporting cast and a wider appeal. It likely won’t be the next Ghost Rider, but Drive Angry shouldn’t have much of a problem overtaking Hall Pass for the top spot with about $20 million.
In general, the veterans shouldn’t have a tough time holding on thanks to the lack of new contenders. Unknown did almost manage to match Taken’s $24.7 million start with $21.9 million, but, odds are, it won’t have such impressive longevity. Taken dropped just 16.9% whereas Unknown looks to fall about 30%, leaving it with $14 million for the weekend. Our surprise winner of last weekend, second-weeker Gnomeo and Juliet, looks as though it could hold strong yet again. With zero animated films in its way, or family films for that matter, we could be looking at just a 30% drop. That would give the film $13 million for its third week.
Sadly for I Am Number Four, a modest drop is not in the cards. The film may have secured the #2 spot for its opening weekend, but if you tack on President’s Day, it loses out to Gnomeo and Juliet. Considering that one looks to maintain pretty good numbers, the odds are not in I Am Number Four’s favor. Even worse, Drive Angry is likely to take away a significant amount of its attention thanks to what looks to be bigger and better action. The question is, how hard will it fall? Should it pull a Percy Jackson, it could lose 50% of its earnings this week. Then again, Percy Jackson came out of the gates much stronger than I Am Number Four, so perhaps the latter could suffer even greater. Should it drop 55%, it would take just $9 million to the bank.
Just Go With It managed to keep up the numbers since its Valentine’s Day weekend release, but thanks to Hall Pass, that might not be the case this time around. It dropped 39.4% from week one to two, not including President’s Day, so this time around that percentage could increase to about 45%, giving it $10 million for week three. As for Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son, here’s where we could really have a devastating drop. Big Mommas is the least successful of the series and considering the first film fell 32% from week one to week two and the second 51%, it’s just about a sure thing that this one will continue the trend and go down even harder, perhaps as much as 65%, which would leave it with just $6 million.
Considering The King’s Speech trailed Justin Bieber: Never Say Never by about $8 million last weekend, you’d think Bieber would have no problem staying ahead. However, Bieber is on line with Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour, so should that parallel continue, Bieber could lose another 54% and come in with just $6 million. The King’s Speech, on the other hand, will certainly get a nice boost from folks scrambling to catch the contender before Oscar night, but it doesn’t look as though it’ll be enough to outdo Bieber or Big Mommas. Even if The King’s Speech only lost 15% of its week 13 earnings, it would still assume the ninth position with about $5 million.
The tenth spot is just a matter of who’ll fall faster, The Roommate, The Eagle or No Strings Attached. No Strings Attached had the smallest drop last weekend, but again, the addition of Hall Pass and fading interest could increase the percentage enough to give the position to one of the other two. Between The Roommate and The Eagle, the odds are in The Roommate’s favor thanks to the current lull in horror films.
1. Drive Angry
2. Hall Pass
4. Gnomeo & Juliet
5. Just Go With It
6. I Am Number Four
7. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never’s
8. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son
9. The King’s Speech
10. The Roommate
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)