The first weekend of March has arrived and it could be a big one! Well, for one or two films at least. We’ve got four brand new wide releases one of which is poised to make a nice chunk of cash. There’s The Adjustment Bureau, Beastly, Rango and Take Me Home Tonight. Which one is going to be the big winner? I’ll give you a hint – Johnny Depp.
Rango has the edge on the competition in every way possible. First off, so far, so good in terms of reviews. Second, this is the first animated film to come to theaters since the surprise hit Gnomeo and Juliet. Based on that film’s success, moviegoers seem to be itching for animation. Even better, Rango isn’t just for kids. Not only is the material itself geared towards both younger and older audiences, but the cartoon aspect will attract the kiddies while the top notch voice cast will lure in the adults, especially the voice of Depp. Rango isn’t putting up Pirates of the Caribbean numbers, but it could earn just as much as another wide-appeal animated March release, How to Train Your Dragon. Just last year that one snagged $43.7 million its first weekend out and it looks as though Rango might do about the same.
Second place will likely go to the thriller The Adjustment Bureau. Not only will it have an edge on Beastly and Take Me Home Tonight based on theater count, but by star count, too. Vanessa Hudgens, Alex Pettyfer, Topher Grace and Anna Faris just aren’t as profitable as Matt Damon and Emily Blunt. However, that doesn’t mean the film is going to make that much. While True Grit has gone on to make a killing, it only earned $24.8 million opening weekend and Damon’s wide release just before that, Green Zone, only started its run with $14.3 million. Considering The Adjustment Bureau isn’t an Oscar nominee and doesn’t also star Jeff Bridges, it will come in with a number closer to that of Green Zone, perhaps $17 million.
As for our remaining two, things are not looking good. Not only does CBS Films not have a good track record, but neither does Beastly’s star, Alex Pettyfer. His last film, I Am Number Four opened with just $19 million in over 1,000 more theaters than Beastly is getting. And, as for CBS Films, none of their movies have opened with more that $13 million. Considering Beastly is very specifically targeted to the Vanessa Hudgens demographic, the film could pull a double Bandslam and wind up with about $5 million.
It just isn’t a good time for comedies. Other than No Strings Attached and Just Go With It, it’s been one weak attempt after the next this year. Last weekend’s top earner was Hall Pass, but it only managed to make a measly $13.5 million. But, odds are, folks looking for a laugh might still opt to check out that one over Take Me Home Tonight, especially older moviegoers who are more familiar with Owen Wilson than with Topher Grace. The film could wind up following in the footsteps of a 2010 comedy, She’s Out of My League. However, considering She’s Out of My League opened in over 900 more theaters, Take Me Home Tonight should end up with just two thirds of that film’s opening total of $9.8 million, leaving it with just $7 million.
These scattered numbers should leave some of the higher positions on the top ten wide open for older films. There will be a nice battle for third between Gnomeo and Juliet and Hall Pass. Unfortunately for the former, Rango is more of a threat than Take Me Home Tonight, so Gnomeo and Juliet will likely take the bigger fall. If it drops 50%, it’ll still make $7 million for its fourth week. As for Hall Pass, it might fare a little better than most comedies in week two, but is still going to see about 45% shaved off of its week one earnings. That would give it roughly $8 million.
Clearly Unknown doesn’t have the legs Taken did back in 2009 and could see another steep drop in week three perhaps losing another 40% giving it $7 million. This weekend is looking far worse for another three-weeker, I Am Number Four. It may have kept up with Unknown up to this point, but the double dose of Pettyfer could cause I Am Number Four to lose a significant amount of attention, dropping 55%, leaving it with just $5 million and, oddly enough, putting both of his films side-by-side on the chart.
The King’s Speech looks to nestle in right between Take Me Home Tonight and Beastly with another $6 million. Thanks to folks looking to prep for the Academy Awards, the film enjoyed a 12.4% boost in week 14. Now that the night is over, it may be an Oscar winner, but that isn’t enough to keep it in the green. However, it still only looks to drop about 15%.
Just Go With It is certainly on its way out thanks to new comedy company. Hall Pass and Take Me Home Tonight aren’t powerhouses by any means, but between their presence and two other films boasting big names entering the competition, Just Go With It could suffer a 50% fall. Similarly, Beastly could steal what thunder Justin Bieber: Never Say Never has left, forcing it to lose at least 50% as well. In the end, it’ll be Just Go With It just over Justin Bieber for that last spot with $5 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Rango
2. The Adjustment Bureau
3. Hall Pass
4. Gnomeo and Juliet
5. Unknown
6. Take Me Home Tonight
7. The King’s Speech
8. Beastly
9. I Am Number Four
10. Just Go With It
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
