Ready for a trio of newcomers? I hope so because this weekend we’ve got Limitless, The Lincoln Lawyer and Paul all hitting 2,700+ theaters.
Let’s start with the Bradley Cooper starrer Limitless. Yes, this one packs a powerful cast including Cooper, Abbie Cornish and Robert De Niro, but so did Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps and that one only opened with $19 million. Even worse? Wall Street had the benefit of an even more star-studded cast and being a sequel to a very successful film. Looking back at Cooper’s recent releases, the most comparable to this one would be The A-Team and that one nabbed $25.7 million, but in almost 1,000 more theaters and, again, having ties to popular source material. In the end, Limitless should come in with about $15 million.
The fact that The Lincoln Lawyer is in the running doesn’t help Limitless much either. No, they don’t cover similar topics, but they are reaching out to similar demographics. Considering the fact that I’ve simply seen more advertisements for Limitless and Bradley Cooper is far more popular than Matthew McConaughey at the moment, I’m giving Limitless the edge and putting The Lincoln Lawyer at $13 million.
Now the question is, will Paul steal the top spot from Battle: Los Angeles? As much as moviegoers love an alien invasion spectacle, the lack of fresh comedies could let Paul steal that top spot. Sure Greg Mottola’s last film, Adventureland, only opened with $5.7 million, but that one only showed in 1,876 theaters. Paul is hitting 2,801 and boasts a much bigger cast. No, Simon Pegg and Nick Frost don’t have the best track record in terms of box office intake, but pair them with Seth Rogen, Jason Bateman, Kristen Wiig, Sigourney Weaver and Bill Hader and we could get something that just crosses the $20 million mark.
As for Battle: Los Angeles, should it follow in the footsteps of Cloverfield or even The Day the Earth Stood Still, it’s looking at a 60% drop at least. I’d like to bet it doesn’t fall as hard, but it’ll still lose about 55% of its week one profits, leaving it with about $16 million. Clearly Rango isn’t living up to How to Train Your Dragon’s standards. Rango opened with slightly less and went on to lose slightly more from week one to two. Considering How to Train Your Dragon fell just 14.3% from week two to three, that difference is likely to grow big time. Should Rango lose another 40%, it’ll pull in just $13 million, barely beating out The Lincoln Lawyer for the fourth spot.
The sixth position could go to Red Riding Hood. It managed to earn just a bit more than Amanda Seyfried’s last wide release, Letters to Juliet, but the same could be true in terms of its cash loss. Letters to Juliet started with $13.5 million then fell 33.5%. Red Riding Hood kicked off its run with $14 million and could fall 40%, which would give it $8 million for week two. Thanks to the addition of a new thriller, Red Riding Hood should have an easy time outrunning The Adjustment Bureau, which took a tough 45.2% hit last weekend and looks to take at least 40% this time around, leaving it with $6 million this weekend.
As for the final three spots, Mars Needs Moms doesn’t have a shot at any of them. Beastly, Hall Pass and Just Go With It should remain in the same formation, all adding roughly $3 million to their pots. Mars Needs Moms wasn’t even able to match Space Chimps’ $7.2 million opening and considering that film barely held onto a top ten spot in its second week, Mars Needs Moms doesn’t have a chance in the world.
2. Battle: Los Angeles
5. The Lincoln Lawyer
6. Red Riding Hood
7. The Adjustment Bureau
9. Hall Pass
10. Just Go With It
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)