Who’s ready for an extra long weekend? The brand new films in contention at the box office better be because, courtesy of Memorial Day, there’s a whole extra day this weekend to lure in those off from work and school. Then again, even without the holiday this would likely be a big one because we’ve got two potential heavy hitters arriving, and both sequels at that.
Just about this time two years ago, The Hangover arrived to fantastic reviews and a relatively strong opening. A $45 million start may not qualify the film as a summer blockbuster, but its incredibly long legs and ultimate climb to over $277 million domestically certainly does. The Hangover kicked off its run with a $13,759 per theater average, but thanks to the pre-established following and hype, The Hangover Part II should have no trouble bumping that up to an impressive $20,000, allowing it to pull off a $96.4 million four-day opening. While The Hangover Part II is the heavy favorite for the top spot, Kung Fu Panda 2 will certainly give it a run for its money. (Pun intended.) Back in 2008, Kung Fu Panda saw a strong start, amassing $60.2 million with a $14,642 per theater average. Should the second film maintain that average at its 3,925 theaters over the four-day weekend, it’ll snag about $77 million.
As for last weekend’s big winner, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, should it see a similar second week drop as the second and third installments of the franchise, it’ll lose at least 55% of its week one earnings, but, thanks to the extra day, still accumulate about $53 million for the holiday weekend. As much as I’d love to see Bridesmaids keep up the stellar performance, odds are, with The Hangover Part II entering the race, it’ll see a much larger week two to three drop, perhaps as much as 40% in terms of three-day earnings. Then again, add on that fourth day and Bridesmaids should still add about $17 million to its domestic total.
While Fast Five is proving to have longer legs than Thor, Thor still should manage to earn just enough to maintain the lead. Should Thor’s downward fall level out just the slightest bit, it could still amass $10 million while Fast Five looks to post about $8 million over the next four days. As Priest continues to make its swift exit, not only will Rio likely watch it slide by, but Jumping the Broom and Something Borrowed, too. Courtesy of the extra long weekend, Rio may only lose 30% of its week six profits, giving it $3 million while Jumping the Broom and Something Borrowed are both poised to post $2 million. Priest, on the other hand, could lose another 70% even with the bonus day. That would give it a little over $1 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. The Hangover Part II
2. Kung Fu Panda 2
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
4. Bridesmaids
5. Thor
6. Fast Five
7. Rio
8. Jumping The Broom
9. Something Borrowed
10. Priest
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
