After a monstrous record-breaking July 4th weekend courtesy of Transformers: Dark of the Moon, we get one a bit on the tamer side for the summer season. We’ve got two new wide releases making their debuts, but neither will be able to surpass Optimus Prime and the gang. Assuming everyone’s gotten Bad Teacher out of their systems, there should be more than enough room for Horrible Bosses to swoop in and snag just as much money, about $30 million. Usually, I’d expect a four-quadrant family film to trump an R-rated comedy, but after Mr. Popper’s Penguins failed to impress, I don’t see how Zookeeper could wrap the weekend with more than $20 million.

Now, as for Transformers: Dark of the Moon, should it fall just as much as Revenge of the Fallen from week one to two, it’ll lose about 60% of its week one profits. That would leave it with another $39 million, more than enough to guard that top spot from both Horrible Bosses and Bad Teacher.

After just two weeks, Cars 2 is already on a far steeper decline than its predecessor. Whereas Cars fell a mere 43.9% from week one to two back in 2006, Cars 2 lost 60.3% of its debut profits. While the fall should level out a bit from week two to three, it still likely won’t be less than 50%. Should that be the case, Cars 2 will come in with about $13 million.

While Bad Teacher will likely take a hard hit courtesy of Horrible Bosses, Larry Crowne had a weak enough start to suggest a harsh week one to two decline, perhaps as much as 50%. That would give Larry Crowne about $7 million for week two while Bad Teacher will likely see a lesser decline for week three, much like Due Date back in November of last year. Should Bad Teacher fall 45%, it’ll end its third weekend with close to $8 million.

Super 8’s been on a well-deserved modest decline, never losing more than 44% in a single weekend. Should the trend continue and Super 8 say goodbye to perhaps 40% of its week four profits, it’ll still earn another $5 million. Monte Carlo is Ramona and Beezus all over again for Selena Gomez. Both films began their runs with about $7 million, so, should Monte Carlo see a similar week two loss, it’ll come in with $3.5 million this time around.

The last two positions on the top 10 will very likely go to Green Lantern and Mr. Popper’s Penguins. However, while Green Lantern has been the leader of the two since opening day, this is the week Mr. Popper’s slower drop could give it the edge on Green Lantern. Should Green Lantern lose 60% of its week four profits and Mr. Popper’s Penguins only 45%, as its done every week since its release, the former will come in with just less than $3 million while the latter will make a solid $3 million.

Shockya.com Predictions

1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon

2. Horrible Bosses

3. Zookeeper

4. Cars 2

5. Bad Teacher

6. Larry Crown

7. Super 8

8. Monte Carlo

9. Mr. Popper’s Penguins

10. Green Lantern

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

By Perri Nemiroff

Film producer and director best known for her work in movies such as FaceTime, Trevor, and The Professor. She has worked as an online movie blogger and reporter for sites such as CinemaBlend.com, ComingSoon.net, Shockya, and MTV's Movies Blog.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *