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Box Office Predictions: Sherlock Holmes To Solve The Case Of The Disappearing Box Office Profits

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On December - 15 - 2011 0 Comment

Could this finally be the weekend the box office creeps out of the gutter? Yup, it looks like the time has come. Sherlock Holmes and the first two Alvin and the Chipmunks movies were all big moneymakers and their predecessors are poised to follow in their footsteps, albeit with slight dips. The first Sherlock Holmes opened with a whopping $62.3 million, but Game of Shadows is on track to post a number more comparable to National Treasure: Book of Secrets, about $44 million. Similarly, Alvin and the Chipmunks and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel started their runs with $44.3 million and $48.9 million respectively, but Chipwrecked might have trouble cracking the $40 million mark and just take $35 million.

We’ve also got another big release – kind of. Rather than start its run with a bang, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol is going for the slow burn, starting in just 400 theaters with a wide expansion due next weekend. So, how much will it make at those 400 locations? With the added boost of that prologue for The Dark Knight Rises in 100 theaters, Ghost Protocol could post $16,000 per location, giving it $6.5 million in total. Making a similar move (but in this film’s case, a more traditional one), Young Adult is due to expand to 986 theaters. Its run began in eight locations with a stellar $38,783 per theater average and while that number will certainly drop drastically, it still could hover around $8,000, giving Young Adult another $7.5 million.

The only good thing about New Year’s Eve coming nowhere close to Valentine’s Day’s $56.3 million opening? It’s got far less to lose. Thanks to the lack of competition in the romantic comedy department, New Year’s Eve should only fall about 25% and take in a much-needed $8 million. Similarly, The Sitter finds itself without any direct new competition and should be able to snag another $6.5 million.

As for The Twilight Saga: Breaking – Dawn Part 1, there are no signs of its landslide slowing down, the film likely losing 50% of its profits yet again, giving it $4 million for week five. The Muppets, on the other hand, might have the staying power to overcome the vampires. Should The Muppets’ week three earnings get slashed by 35%, it’ll wrap week four with about $4.5 million. But, the question is, will that be enough to keep the surprisingly strong Arthur Christmas from topping both The Muppets and Breaking Dawn? After falling 38.7% from week one to two and then just 12% from week two to three, Arthur Christmas could see its percent change rise again thanks to Chipwrecked, but probably only to about 35%. However, that still won’t be enough to steal the seventh position from The Muppets. Lastly, Hugo’s been enjoying a slow decline as well, but should its per theater average get slashed in half yet again, it’ll only take $3 million to the bank this time around. Predictions

1. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

3. New Year’s Eve

4. Young Adult

5. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol

6. The Sitter

7. The Muppets

8. Arthur Christmas

9. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1

10. Hugo

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

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