With just four limited releases making their debuts this final weekend of 2011, all of the box office veterans will get a chance to duke it out yet again. Considering the numbers were rather mild last weekend, the same could be true now with no new competition to shake things up.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol took $29.5 million in its first weekend out as a wide release and should have no trouble holding onto that top spot this time around. Last year Little Fockers fell just 16.4% from Christmas to New Year’s, so if Ghost Protocol sees a similar drop, it’ll lock the #1 slot with another $25 million. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, on the other hand, could see a steeper fall as it’s entering its third weekend and could suffer a bit from folks scrambling to catch the award season heavyweights. However, that doesn’t mean it’ll come anywhere near to having another 48.9% loss. Should Game of Shadows fall about 30%, it’ll still take $15 million.

Not a bad total for a third weekend out, but that’ll certainly allow The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to at least nip at its heels. Thanks to positive word-of-mouth, there’s a good chance The Girl with the Dragoon Tattoo could see no drop at all, or perhaps fall by just 1 or 2%, giving it about $12 million. Now if Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked takes another 45% hit and The Adventures of Tintin loses just 10% of its weekend one profits, we could see the two animated features swap positions on the top ten. That would give Chipwrecked another $7 million, but Tintin another $8.5 million.

And Tintin might not be the only film to trump Chipwrecked. If it really does take that tough a tumble, We Bought a Zoo and War Horse could both rise above, too. In fact, War Horse could top even more than Chipwrecked. Even though it only opened on Sunday, War Horse managed to snag the 7th position with $7.5 million for the single day. Odds are it won’t post $7.5 million each day this weekend, but it could score about $5 million. Should that be the case, War Horse will come in with a total of $15 million for the third spot. As for We Bought a Zoo, that one looks to be heading towards a modest 25% decline, which would give it $7 million for weekend two.

Similar to War Horse, The Darkest Hour got a Sunday debut and still managed to creep into the top ten with its $3 million day. On the other hand, thanks to lackluster reviews, $3 million days are a thing of the past and this weekend, The Darkest Hour might snag only half that each day, giving it a total of $4.5 million for the weekend. After two rather hefty hits, New Year’s Eve could enjoy a more stable weekend courtesy of the holiday and simply because it just doesn’t have much to lose. Should it see 30% of its $3.3 million week three total slip away, it’ll earn another $2 million.

There will be a tight race for the last spot between The Muppets, Hugo, Arthur Christmas and The Descendants all of which earned between $2 and $2.15 million last weekend. Even though The Muppets has the best reviews of the bunch, I’m betting this one comes down to Oscar buzz and, in that case, Hugo will have enough of an edge on The Descendants to close out the last top ten of 2011 with $1.5 million.

Shockya.com Predictions

1. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol

2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

3. War Horse

4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5. The Adventures of Tintin

6. We Bought a Zoo

7. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

8. The Darkest Hour

9. New Year’s Eve

10. Hugo

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

By Perri Nemiroff

Film producer and director best known for her work in movies such as FaceTime, Trevor, and The Professor. She has worked as an online movie blogger and reporter for sites such as CinemaBlend.com, ComingSoon.net, Shockya, and MTV's Movies Blog.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *