What’s with all the action films lately? Two weekends ago it was Contraband, then Haywire, Red Tails and Underworld: Awakening and now we’re getting The Grey, Man on a Ledge and One for the Money. Lucky for One for the Money, even though it’s being billed as an action comedy, it’s Katherine Heigl’s face on all the posters, so it should fill the long vacant romantic comedy slot. However, it is only hitting 2,737 theaters, which gives the other newcomers, The Grey and Man on a Ledge a bit of an edge. Unfortunately, this won’t be a 27 Dresses-sized opening for Heigl, rather more along the lines of Leap Year with about $10 million.
Liam Neeson, on the other hand, could come close to having another Taken with The Grey. Back in 2009, Taken opened with a solid $24.7 million. The Grey won’t match that, but it should come in just short with about $20 million. As for Man on a Ledge, even with a star-studded cast, poor reviews could take hold and bring it down to an opening weekend similar to that of The Mechanic, about $11 million.
So far, so good for Underworld: Awakening, but if it continues to follow right behind the franchise’s biggest opener, Evolution, it’s on its way to a 55% week two drop, which would leave it with just $11 million. Red Tails, on the other hand, could enjoy a minimal decline after a surprisingly strong opening. Should it only lose 40% of its week one profits, it’ll still take $11 million to the bank, perhaps surpassing Underworld. Contraband lost 50% from week one to two and thanks to the new additions in the action department, the same exact thing could happen this time around. Should that be the case, Contraband will post about $6 million for weekend three.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close didn’t manage to raise its intake much even with 2,624 additional theaters, but a smaller profit and newfound Oscar buzz does mean it probably won’t fall much. In fact, it could only drop 25%, which would give it another $7.5 million. In other Academy Awards news, The Descendants is adding another 1,437 theaters and considering its per theater average has hovered around $4,000 for the past few weeks, there’s no reason to think that’ll drop. If it holds onto that number, The Descendants could take $8 million to the bank this weekend.
Luckily both Beauty and the Beast and Haywire have enough of a lead on Joyful Noise because they’re heading towards 50% losses and could use the buffer if they’re going to lock the 9th and 10th spots on the top ten with roughly $4.5 million a piece.
1. The Grey
2. Red Tails
3. Underworld: Awakening
4. Man on a Ledge
5. One for the Money
6. The Descendants
7. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
8. Contraband
9. Beauty and the Beast
10. Haywire
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
