We’ve got four new wide releases arriving this weekend, but unfortunately for some, there just won’t be enough moviegoers to go around. Act of Valor will undoubtedly come out on top. The whole real Navy SEAL angle is really raising the level of intrigue and could help the film secure an $8,000 per theater average, giving it a weekend one total of $24 million. Gone looks to be Abduction all over again, posting a mere $3,500 per theater average for a $7 million opening weekend.
Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds should fair a little better, tapping into his dedicated fan base to pull in numbers similar to his 2008 film, The Family That Preys, and kick off its run with about $17 million. Last up for the newcomers is the Paul Rudd and Jennifer Anniston-starrer Wanderlust. It’s only hitting 1,900 theaters, but should it follow in the footsteps of Love Happens, it’ll post about $8 million for the weekend.
As for the box office veterans, you know what happens after a holiday weekend? A steep drop. Safe House enjoyed a $23.6 million second weekend, but this time around it looks to lose about 50% of its profits for a $12 million weekend three haul. The Vow could be heading towards similar territory, which could give it another $11 million. The nice surprise could be Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, which only lost 27.4% from week one to two and might only see a slightly steeper drop this time around. Should that be the case, it could earn a solid $12 million, giving it an edge on The Vow. Journey 2 might even come close to taking down Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance. If Ghost Rider drops 50%, it’ll only take $11 million, potentially letting Journey 2 advance yet another spot.
This Means War, on the other hand, looks to lose some serious steam, cutting nearly half of its weekend one profits, much like The Tourist, leaving it with just $8 million this time around. After Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace dropped a whopping 64.5% from weekend one to two, the odds are in Chronicle’s favor to hold on for one more weekend in the top ten. There is a chance it could get knocked out by The Secret World of Arriety, but it looks like positive word of mouth could give Chronicle another $4.5 million and the tenth spot.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Act of Valor
2. Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds
3. Safe House
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
5. Ghost Ride: Spirit of Vengeance
6. The Vow
7. Wanderlust
8. This Means War
9. Gone
10. Chronicle
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
