Pixar has enjoyed four $60 million+ openings in a row. Will Brave mark #5? Even with 4,000, I doubt it. With Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted still going somewhat strong, Brave might be heading towards an opening more along the lines of Tangled, about $50 million and while $50 million is still a nice chunk of cash, should Brave not crack $60 million, it’ll still be one of Pixar’s weaker openings. As for Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, while it certainly won’t end up a total dud like Jonah Hex, it won’t blow the box office away either. Consider Underworld Awakening’s $25 million start, shave a little off due to the fact that Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter isn’t part of a franchise and you end up with about $20 million. While Seeking a Friend for the End of the World is also considered a new wide release, it’s only hitting 1,400 theaters so will be vying for a mid top ten position. Should it pull a One Day, it could end up with $8 million and the #5 spot.
As for the veterans, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted will continue to lead the pack. It’ll likely take a rough hit thanks to Brave, but even if it gets slashed by 55%, it’ll still post $15 million for weekend three. After taking an especially large 59.4% weekend one to two hit, Prometheus might get some relief, perhaps only dropping 50% this time around. Should that be the case, it’ll take another $10 million to the bank.
After lackluster starts, both Rock of Ages and That’s My Boy could begin swift exits. Should both lose 50% of their opening profits, the former will come in with about $8 million and the latter just $6.5 million. Even after a hefty 59% weekend one to two tumble, Snow White and the Huntsman recovered, losing just 42.5% from weekend two to three. Should it find a happy medium between the two this time around, it could earn another $7 million, likely topping That’s My Boy. Men in Black 3 and The Avengers should have no trouble holding on to the last two spots, Men in Black 3 looking to lose 40% for another $6 million and The Avengers dropping the same for $5 million.
2. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
3. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted
5. Seeking a Friend for the End of the World
6. Rock of Ages
7. Snow White and the Huntsman
8. That’s My Boy
9. Men in Black 3
10. The Avengers