With Independence Day falling out right in the middle of the week, we might have two rather strong weekends at the box office. There’s a quartet of new releases dropping including Magic Mike, People Like Us, Ted and Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection. Magic Mike looks to be the big winner thanks to a very attractive ad campaign and strong reviews. Magic Mike might actually turn out to be one of Steven Soderbergh’s biggest non-franchise openings, topping Erin Brockovich’s $28 million for a $30 million start. However, that still won’t be enough to trump last weekend’s top earner. Should Brave take a modest hit, about 48.5%, it’ll still post $34 million.
Even though People Like Us is the only drama hitting theaters, it could get completely overshadowed by the competition. Should it take a similar path as My Sister’s Keeper, it’ll only post $12 million for its first weekend out. Ted, on the other hand, should at least wind up nipping at Magic Mike’s heels. Just about this time last year, moviegoers were eating up raunchy comedies like Bad Teacher and Horrible Bosses, so there’s no reason to think Ted won’t match those with a $28 million opening.
The Madea movies typically post north of $20 million, but lately, Tyler Perry releases have been a little soft, Good Deeds only kicking off with $15.6 million and For Colored Girls with $19.5 million. However, there’s also no reason to think Witness Protection will post much less than Big Happy Family, so it should be on its way to a $23 million start.
After a minimal 42.1% drop, the rather large number of newcomers could pose a problem for Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted. With so many hands in the cookie jar, it could drop 50% for a $10 million fourth weekend out. After a lackluster opening, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could fade fast, perhaps losing half of its opening profits for an $8 million second weekend. Prometheus doesn’t seem to want to lose any less than 50% from weekend to weekend. Should the trend continue, it’ll only take another $5 million to the bank.
Snow White and the Huntsman, on the other hand, proved to have longer legs than expected. After a devastating 59% weekend one to two drop, it only lost 42.5% and then just 39%. Even if that number gets bumped up to 45%, it’ll still earn $4.5 million for weekend five. Assuming That’s My Boy will take the bigger hit with Ted entering the arena, Rock of Ages should hold on strong enough to earn $3.5 million and the final spot on the top ten.
2. Magic Mike
4. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection
5. People Like Us
6. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted
7. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
9. Snow White and the Huntsman
10. Rock of Ages
(via Box Office Mojo)