The summer is winding down and it looks to do so on a rather soft note at the box office. The second to last weekend of the season sees three new wide releases, “The Apparition,” “Hit & Run” and “Premium Rush.” “Hit & Run” is getting the widest release, but because of its early opening on Wednesday, it won’t take in as much over the weekend. Should we use a dulled down version of last summer’s “30 Minutes or Less” to account for Wednesday and Thursday, “Hit & Run” should wrap the weekend with $8 million. “Premium Rush” is getting the next widest release with 2,100 theaters and while it’s got a shot at matching “30 Minutes or Less,” that only pertains to its per theater average. Should “Premium Rush” pull in $4,616 per theater, it’ll only make $9 million in total. As it’s only debuting in about 800 theaters, the final new release, “The Apparition,” won’t manage to crack the top ten.
With none of the newcomers making a killing, last weekend’s top earner, “The Expendables 2,” should have no trouble holding its position. Should it lose half of its opening earnings like the first film, it’ll take another $15 million to the bank. “The Bourne Legacy” took a hefty weekend one to two hit, but that should level out this time around to about 45%, letting it accumulate another $9 million. Even though this is a lesser drop, “ParaNorman” could have the legs to inch its way above “The Bourne Legacy.” Should “ParaNorman” fall just 35%, it’ll take $10 million for weekend two.
As for “The Campaign” and “Sparkle,” if both lose 50%, they’ll take $7 million and $6 million respectively for the 6th and 7th positions. There’s a good chance “The Dark Knight Rises” could hold on to surpass at least one of them, but my money is on something closer to a 50% drop for Batman. Should that be the case, “The Dark Knight Rises” will come in with $5.5 million, just short of “Sparkle.” If “Hope Springs” continues to hold on strong, it could be on its way to a 42% drop for another $5 million. That means “The Odd Life of Timothy Green” will need to hold onto at least half of its opening profits for that 9th spot and it isn’t looking likely.
1. The Expendables
3. The Bourne Legacy
4. Premium Rush
5. Hit & Run
6. The Campaign
8. The Dark Knight Rises
9. Hope Springs
10. The Odd Life of Timothy Green