We’ve got an interesting mix of newcomers hitting theaters this Halloween weekend. While we do have one holiday-themed film, there’s just a single horror movie in the mix, “Silent Hill: Revelation 3D.” “Revelation” won’t manage to match the first film’s $20 million opening, but as the only creepy newcomer, it should have no trouble locking the top spot with something along the lines of “Saw VI,” about $15 million. “Fun Size” is clearly looking to bank on the appropriate timing of its release, but with tween targeted films like “Monte Carlo” and “Prom” underperforming, there’s no reason to think this one will earn much more than $7 million.
The sci-fi epic “Cloud Atlas” will likely attract a crowd, but with less than 2,000 theaters, its opening weekend grand total won’t be enough to trump “Silent Hill.” Should “Cloud Atlas” post a solid $6,000 per theater, it’ll take about $12 million in total. Last up for the newcomers is the sports movie “Chasing Mavericks.” With a minimal press push and oddly timed release, “Chasing Mavericks” looks to match “Warrior” with a mere $5.5 million to start.
The bright side of not having as big of an opening as its predecessors? “Paranormal Activity 4” has less to lose. Whereas the third film dropped a whopping 65% from weekend one to two, “Paranormal Activity 4” will likely hold on to 40% of its opening weekend profits and take another $11.5 million to the bank. While “Argo” likely won’t be fortunate enough to have another 15.5% loss, it could keep the drop to just 30%, which would give it $11.5 million for its third weekend out and a good shot at stealing the third spot from “Paranormal Activity 4.” “Taken 2” could find a happy medium between its 55.8% weekend one to two loss and its 39.4% weekend two to three one, dropping 45% for another $7 million, but giving way to “Hotel Transylvania,” which should continue its stellar run with a minimal 30% loss and a $9 million fifth weekend out.
After a dismal start, “Alex Cross” could lose at least half of its $11.4 million opening earnings, barely beating out “Sinister,” which looks to bank on the holiday, only dropping 40% for $5.5 million.
1. Silent Hill: Revelation 3D
2. Cloud Atlas
4. Paranormal Activity 4
5. Hotel Transylvania
6. Taken 2
7. Fun Size
8. Alex Cross
10. Chasing Mavericks