O-M-G! It’s finally here! I might be sarcastic about the release of the final film of “The Twilight Saga” franchise, “Breaking Dawn – Part 2,” but tons of fans out there most certainly are not and are about to catapult the film to a $150 million opening. Similar to the “Harry Potter” franchise, the final installment will open with the biggest bang, but, per usual, “Breaking Dawn” will have the shorter legs suffering a far faster decline soon thereafter.
While “Breaking Dawn – Part 2” will gobble up a nice chunk of the cash flow, “Skyfall” will benefit from the fact that it’s the only new film being offered. Folks who don’t want to see “Twilight” really don’t want to see “Twilight” and will be rushing to fill the seats for “Skyfall” instead, letting it maintain 50% of its opening profits for a $44 million second weekend out. “Wreck-It Ralph” should stay in pretty good shape, too. “Breaking Dawn” will undoubtedly pull away a number of tweens, but not enough to cause “Wreck-It Ralph” to lose more than 40%, giving it another $20 million.
With “Lincoln” expanding to 1,775 theaters, moviegoers with Oscar on the brain will wind up split between that, “Flight,” and “Argo.” “Argo” will suffer the heftiest loss, as it’s due to wave goodbye to 533 theaters. Should it drop 45%, its biggest loss yet, it’ll take $3.6 million. “Flight,” on the other hand, is set to gain 565 theaters, which could bring its weekend two to three 40.6% drop down to just 30% for another $10 million. As for “Lincoln,” the additional theaters will bring that $85,846 per theater average down to about $5,000, giving it a total of $9 million.
While “Taken 2” enjoyed a mere 32.2% drop last weekend, the loss of 424 could slash its weekend six profits by 45%, giving it just over $2 million for weekend seven. “Cloud Atlas” and “The Man with the Iron Fists” may have been several positions off from dropping out of the top ten last weekend, but they’re falling fast enough that both could get the boot by “Pitch Perfect,” “Here Comes the Boom” and “Hotel Transylvania.” “Pitch Perfect” even has a shot at scoring an exceptionally minimal drop yet again, losing only 20% and taking in another $2 million. “Here Comes the Boom” and “Hotel Transylvania” are both losing a number of screens, but should manage to hold on strong enough to hover around the $1 million mark.
1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2
3. Wreck-It Ralph
7. Taken 2
8. Pitch Perfect
9. Here Comes the Boom
10. Hotel Transylvania