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Box Office Predictions: Twilight To Take Turkey Day Weekend

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On November - 22 - 2012 0 Comment

A Thanksgiving food coma isn’t going to stop folks from checking out the latest at the movies. This holiday weekend is poised to be a big one for the box office, and particularly for “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2.” Even if it suffers a 65% slashing, about the same as the last installment, it’ll still take $50 million for three days and possibly $75 million for the full five-day weekend. “Rise of the Guardians” should clean up as well thanks to the film’s holiday theme and family friendly nature. It may not reach “Tangled” status, but it does look to be on its way to a $35 million three-day start and $50 million for five.

Even with 2,902 theaters and a good deal of Oscar buzz, “Life of Pi” might not earn enough to trump “Skyfall” or “Lincoln.” Should “Skyfall” only drop 35%, it’ll be looking at a $26 million three-day weekend. “Lincoln” will likely stay in good shape as well, only losing 30% and taking another $15 million to the bank in three days and about $27 million in five. “Life of Pi,” on the other hand, might find itself closer to “We Bought a Zoo,” only posting $12 million for three days and maybe $20 for five.

Even with “Rise of the Guardians” entering the competition, “Wreck-It Ralph” could still maintain a nice chunk of its weekend three profits, losing just 40% for an $11 million weekend and then $18 million for the holiday weekend. Poor “Red Dawn” is looking at a lackluster start, barely out-earning “Dredd” with $8 million for three days and $15 million for five.

“Flight” looks to continue to enjoy some awards season clout, only dropping 30% and pulling in another $6 million in three days and $10 million for the holiday weekend, just edging out “Silver Linings Playbook” for the eighth spot. “Silver Linings” is due to expand to 367 theaters and while it certainly won’t re-post that $27,688 per theater average at each of them, it could do $15,000, which would give it about $5 million for the weekend and close to $10 million for the holiday weekend. “Argo” is due to lose 955 theaters, but with “Taken 2” set to lose even more, it should have no trouble securing the final spot on the top ten with $2.5 million in three days and $4 million in five. Predictions

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2

2. Rise of the Guardians

3. Skyfall

4. Lincoln

5. Life of Pi

6. Wreck-It Ralph

7. Red Dawn

8. Flight

9. Silver Linings Playbook

10. Argo

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2

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