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Box Office Predictions: Cruise, Apatow, Streisand, Mike And Sulley Are No Match For The Hobbit

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On December - 20 - 2012 0 Comment

Here we go; the heavy hitters are starting to move in. Leading up to Christmas at the box office we have five new wide releases – “Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away,” which is unlikely to crack the top ten, “The Guilt Trip,” “Jack Reacher,” “Monsters, Inc. 3D” and “This Is 40.” While all four do have the potential to post a decent opening intake, “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” will maintain that top spot with ease, posting a solid a $40 million for its second weekend out.

“Jack Reacher” should open similar to “Valkyrie” with about $21 million to start while a slightly higher theater count could be just what “This Is 40” needs to steal the #3 spot from “The Guilt Trip.” Should both post a $4,000 per theater average, “This Is 40” will come in third with $12 million and “The Guilt Trip” fourth with $9 million. As for “Monsters, Inc. 3D,” with far more competition at the box office, it’ll likely come in well behind the last 3D re-release, “Finding Nemo,” only taking $7 million compared to “Finding Nemo’s” $16.7 million start.

Should the box office veterans all hold strong yet again, “Rise of the Guardians,” “Lincoln,” “Skyfall,” and “Life of Pi” should fall right in line. “Lincoln” did take a lesser hit than “Rise of the Guardians” the last time around, but with no new kid-friendly fare hitting theaters this weekend, both could sustain a similar drop, perhaps about 35%. Should that be the case, “Rise of the Guardians” will take the #6 spot with $4.5 million while “Lincoln” will take #7 with just less than that.

“Skyfall” and “Life of Pi” should line up the same way as well, both on their way to 45% losses for $4 million and $3 million intakes, respectively, but “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2” could fall far enough for “Wreck-It Ralph” to climb up a notch and steal that last spot. Should “Twilight” take a 50% cut and “Ralph” only lose 35%, “Ralph” might just top “Twilight’s” $2 million with just over that. Predictions

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

2. Jack Reacher

3. This Is 40

4. The Guilt Trip

5. Monsters, Inc. 3D

6. Rise of the Guardians

7. Lincoln

8. Skyfall

9. Life of Pi

10. Wreck-It Ralph

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

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