Who’s going to get the most love at the box office on Valentine’s Day? “Beautiful Creatures,” “A Good Day to Die Hard,” and “Safe Haven” are all arriving early in honor of the holiday. Should “Safe Haven” keep in line with “Dear John” and “The Vow,” it could be heading towards a strong start. However, with Julianne Hough and Josh Duhamel being less of a draw than Channing Tatum and “Safe Haven” going up against what could be solid competition, it may fall shy of “Dear John’s” $30 million opening with something more along the lines of $22 million. However, tack on its Valentine’s Day start, and that could mean another $8 million, bringing “Safe Haven” to $30 million for the long weekend.
“Live Free or Die Hard” enjoyed a $33 million opening back in 2007, but without a summer debut, “A Good Day to Die Hard” might fall short of franchise expectations. Odds are, it’s not going to have much of a Valentine’s Day draw, but even if it only takes $6 million on day one, it could build momentum over the weekend, perhaps coming in just behind “Safe Haven” with $21 million for three days and $27 million for four. And as for “Beautiful Creatures,” even though it’s riding both the YA-to-film and holiday waves, it might lose steam courtesy of all the competition. Despite being the best-reviewed new wide release, and that’s not saying much, “Beautiful Creatures” might take $6 million opening day, but only $16 for the weekend, giving it a four-day total of $22 million.
Should “Identity Thief” hold on strong, there’s a good chance it could bump “Beautiful Creatures” down to #4. If it loses just 45% of its opening total, it’ll take another $19 million to the bank and claim the third spot. We’ve also got the animated film “Escape From Planet Earth” arriving on Friday and even though its marketing campaign has been subpar at best, the fact that it’s the only new kid-friendly material to arrive in quite a while could earn it a nice chunk of the box office. There’s a good chance “Escape From Planet Earth” could be nipping at “Beautiful Creatures’” heels with a weekend total of $15 million.
“Warm Bodies” stayed fairly strong in weekend two and can except something similar the third time around. Should it get some staying power from the holiday, it might retain 60% of its weekend two profits and earn another $7 million. As for “Side Effects,” a mediocre opening might turn into a tough tumble. Despite a very positive reception, “Side Effects” could come and go, starting its decline with a 50% weekend one to two loss for just $4.5 million. Thanks to “Silver Lining’s Playbook’s” long, long legs, it should have no trouble trumping “Side Effects” and snagging that 7th spot. Even if its 17% weekend 12 to 13 drop gets bumped up to 25%, it’ll still take another $5 million.
Even though “Zero Dark Thirty” has enjoyed a long run as well, it likely won’t hold on strong enough to beat out “Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters” or “Mama” for one of the final two spots on the top ten. “Hansel and Gretel” is poised to take #9 with $3 million with “Mama” coming in just behind with about $2.5 million.
1. Safe Haven
2. A Good Day to Die Hard
3. Identity Thief
4. Beautiful Creatures
5. Escape From Planet Earth
6. Warm Bodies
7. Silver Linings Playbook
8. Side Effects
9. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters