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Box Office Predictions: Dark Skies To Abduct Your Money

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On February - 21 - 2013 0 Comment

While “Snitch” may feel the effects of an overabundance of recent action hero thrillers, “Dark Skies” is bound to benefit from the distance between it and “Mama.” While it won’t match “Mama’s” $28.4 million start, it does have a good shot at doing so with the 2010 release, “Legion,” which kicked off its run with about $17 million. As for “Snitch,” without the backbone of a powerful franchise like “A Good Day to Die Hard,” it could be heading towards a lackluster start, something along the lines of “The Mechanic’s” $11 million.

We go back to “A Good Day to Die Hard” for a look at the box office veterans. After a strong $24.8 million three-day opening, the franchise’s latest installment could be in for a tough tumble. Should it feel the effects of “Snitch,” “A Good Day to Die Hard” could drop by 50%, which would give it just $13 million, a number “Identity Thief” will likely beat. With no new comedies hitting the market, Melissa McCarthy should be free and clear to take in another load of cash. Should the film dip by just 40%, it’ll take another $14 million to the bank.

As for “Safe Haven,” it may have had a nice Valentine’s Day weekend run, but now that the holiday has come and gone, so will the movie. Should it take a 55% hit, similar to “The Lucky One,” it’ll be left with about $10 million for weekend two. “Escape From Planet Earth” should again benefit from being the only kid-friendly flick in theaters. If it only drops 40%, it’ll take in another $10 million, possibly stealing the 5th spot from “Safe Haven.”

That wildly impressive 21.9% weekend two to three drop was likely due to Valentine’s Day, but even without the holiday, “Warm Bodies” should hold strong, especially if “Beautiful Creatures” makes a quick exit. If “Warm Bodies” drops 40%, it’ll take in about $5.5 million for weekend four. As for “Beautiful Creatures,” things won’t get much better after its very disappointing $7.6 million opening. There’s a good chance its weekend one profits could get slashed in half and a mere $3.5 million might only be good enough for the last spot on the top ten.

Even with a 535-theater loss, “Side Effects” should continue to hold fairly strong and keep its percent change to about 45%, which will give it another $3.5 million. However, should “Silver Linings Playbook” continue to post percent changes in the single digits, “Side Effects” will only take #9 or #10. Even if “Silver Linings” ends up with a heftier 25% hit, it’s still looking at $4.5 million, which would let it snag the 8th spot with ease. Predictions

1. Dark Skies

2. Identity Thief

3. A Good Day to Die Hard

4. Snitch

5. Escape From Planet Earth

6. Safe Haven

7. Warm Bodies

8. Silver Linings Playbook

9. Side Effects

10. Beautiful Creatures

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

Dark Skies

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