“Jack the Giant Slayer” opened at #1, but failed to justify its monumental budget; will “Oz The Great and Powerful” meet the same fate? Absolutely not. This is the same weekend back in 2010 that “Alice in Wonderland” opened with an incredible $116 million, but it’s also the same weekend “John Carter” took just $30 million in 2012. While “Oz” doesn’t have a chance at matching “Alice,” it could find middle ground between the two, which would give it a rock solid $80 million to start. Unfortunately for our second newcomer, “Dead Man Down,” it’s only going to take the smallest fraction of that amount, perhaps just $7 million.
Then again, $7 million might not be all that bad this weekend. In fact, the only other film that’s got any shot at overearning it other than “Oz,” is “Jack the Giant Slayer.” Should “Jack” take a 50% hit going up against “Oz,” it’ll come in with another $14 million, which would put it at #2 and “Dead Man Down” at #3. With zero comedy competition entering the race, “Identity Thief” should continue to merely inch its way down, perhaps losing just 30% again for another $6.5 million.
Even with no youth-friendly fare or horror films arriving, both “21 and Over” and “The Last Exorcism Part II” could fall to “Snitch” and possibly more. Should “21 and Over” drop 50% and “Last Exorcism” take one of those wicked 60% weekend one to two genre hits, “Snitch” would top both with $4.2 million while “21 and Over” takes just less than that and “Last Exorcism” only posts $3 million. However, that still doesn’t even guarantee these three the 5th, 6th and 7th spots. With “Silver Linings Playbook” seeing nearly no weekend 15 to 16 loss, there’s a good shot it might only drop 10% this time around, which would give it another $5.1 million, making #5 an easy grab.
Even worse for “Last Exorcism,” “Escape From Planet Earth” will out earn it, too. The animated alien movie has turned out to be quite the box office surprise, never losing more than 38% and there’s no reason to think it’ll start now. If it drops 38% again, it’ll take $4 million and that’ll be enough for #8, pushing “Last Exorcism” to #9. But even then, “Last Exorcism” might have a fight for #9, too. Even if “Safe Haven” drops 50%, it’ll still take $3 million, putting it right in contention with “Last Exorcism” for #9 and, between the two, “Safe Haven” is more likely to come out on top.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Oz The Great and Powerful
2. Jack The Giant Slayer
3. Dead Man Down
4. Identity Thief
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Snitch
7. 21 and Over
8. Escape From Planet Earth
9. Safe Haven
10. The Last Exorcism Part II
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
