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Box Office Predictions: Oblivion To Benefit From Being The Only New Wide Release

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On April - 18 - 2013 0 Comment

As the weekend’s only new wide release, all eyes are on the Tom Cruise-starrer, “Oblivion.” With summer movie buzz already in the air, the film could benefit from tentpole hype, possibly earning just less than “G.I. Joe: Retaliation,” kicking off its run with a $35 million start.

Should “42” take a weekend two dip slightly higher than “Moneyball,” it’ll retain 55% of its opening weekend profits for another $15 million. As for “Scary Movie 5,” it’s poised to fall and fall fast. Should it drop like “Vampires Suck” and “Meet the Spartans,” it’ll wave goodbye to 60% of its opening profits for a mere $6 million second weekend out.

With “Scary Movie 5” taking such a significant hit, “The Croods” should have no trouble keeping the #3 spot. If it sees another 36% change, it’ll get to take in an impressive $8 million for weekend five. As for “G.I. Joe: Retaliation,” while its percent loss should be leveling out, with “Oblivion” posing a threat, it’ll likely see another 48% dip, which would give it just $5.5 million for weekend five, a number only good enough for the 5th position.

Sadly “Evil Dead” is on the typical horror movie landslide and while its decline should level out a bit in weekend three, it’ll still forgo about half of its weekend two profits, adding only $4.5 million more to its domestic total. “Jurassic Park 3D” dipped far more harshly than expected from weekend one to two and while things should improve in weekend three, it won’t improve enough for the film to make much more than $4.5 million and that means there’s a good chance “Olympus Has Fallen” could hold on strong enough to surpass it. Should that one drop 35%, it’ll take just over $4.5 million and the 7th spot.

As “Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor” plummets, “Oz The Great and Powerful” should have no trouble securing the 9th position. However, if it drops 40% and “The Place Beyond the Pines” only loses 30%, “Oz” will barely keep on top with $3 million compared to “Place Beyond the Pines’” $2.5 million. Predictions

1. Oblivion

2. 42

3. The Croods

4. Scary Movie 5

5. G.I. Joe Retaliation

6. Evil Dead

7. Olympus Has Fallen

8. Jurassic Park 3D

9. Oz The Great and Powerful

10. The Place Beyond the Pines

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

Tom Cruise in Oblivion

Tom Cruise in Oblivion

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