Newcomers “After Earth” and “Now You See Me” could be in trouble. “Fast & Furious 6” isn’t going to let up so easily. Even if it drops 63% from weekend one to two like “Fast Five,” it’ll still take $36 million to the bank and put up a solid fight for the #1 and #2 spots. However, should “After Earth” match another M. Night Shyamalan summer release, “The Last Airbender,” it’ll kick of its run at the top with $40 million. Even though “Now You See Me” boasts a star studded cast, the magic may lose some momentum courtesy of “The Incredible Burt Wonderstone,” leaving it with just less than “Cowboy & Aliens,” about $30 million.
“The Hangover Part III” didn’t even make half the amount “Part II” did opening weekend, so it likely won’t face a detrimental 63.5% drop, but it still could lose half of its opening profits, which would give it just over $20 million for weekend two. Should “Star Trek Into Darkness” keep in line with “Star Trek,” it’ll come close to snagging the #4 spot from “The Hangover,” but not close enough. Should its percent change increase the slightest to about 48%, it’ll take just under $20 million. However, it’s not “Star Trek” “The Hangover” has to worry about anyway, as “Epic” may be heading toward such a minimal drop, it could rise above both. With no new animated competition entering the race, there’s no reason to think “Epic” will drop more than 35%, giving it a $22 million second weekend out and the 4th position on the top ten.
Both “Iron Man 3” and “The Great Gatsby” are at the point that they should be able to maintain their losses. Should “Iron Man 3” dip 46% again, it’ll take $10.5 million for its 5th weekend out while “The Great Gatsby” will bring another $7.5 million to the bank courtesy of a 44% weekend three to four dip.
Considering “Mud,” “42,” and “The Croods” are all within $1 million of each other, this could be a tough call, but “Mud” should come out on top as it’s going into its 6th weekend in theaters with a $.5 million lead on the other two, not to mention an impressively minimal weekend four to five decline. Even if that 13.1% percent change inches up to 25%, it’ll take that 9th spot with ease with $1.5 million. As for “42” and “The Croods,” it’s really a toss up, but considering “The Croods” is facing in-genre competition with “Epic,” “42” will likely come out on top, dropping 45% for another $700,000 and one last appearance in the top ten.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. After Earth
2. Fast & Furious 6
3. Now You See Me
4. Epic
5. The Hangover Part III
6. Star Trek Into Darkness
7. Iron Man 3
8. The Great Gatsby
9. Mud
10. 42
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
