We’ve got two new wide releases hitting theaters this weekend, but the spotlight is only on one, “Man of Steel.” Will it become the highest opening earner of summer 2013? The answer is easy – absolutely not. “Man of Steel” will benefit from the lack of blockbusters over the past two weekends, but technically, it’s not really a sequel, so it’s hard to imagine it coming anywhere near “Iron Man 3’s” $174 million start. However, it could wind up matching “Fast & Furious 6,” kick off its run with about $100 million. That’d make for a solid start, but would still leave it with a steep climb to justify that $225 million production budget.
As for the second newcomer, “This Is The End,” it likely won’t take in all that much, but that’s somewhat due to the fact that it first hit theaters on Wednesday. If we’re just looking at the three-day weekend, “This Is The End” could earn just as much as 2009’s “Year One,” which snagged $19 million its first weekend out. But, should it also manage to take about $7 million on Wednesday and Thursday, the grand total will creep up to a solid $33 million, already putting it over its production budget.
“The Purge” already earned itself a sequel, but the big question now is, is the concept hot enough to avoid the typical horror genre weekend one to two crash? I’m not betting on it. Even though it proved to be quite the surprise by trumping “The Strangers” by about $14 million opening weekend, “The Purge” is already falling rather fast. It consistently dropped about 35% from day to day all weekend and then plummeted 51.1% moving from Sunday to Monday. If that’s any reflection of what’s to come, “The Purge” will be lucky to retain half of its opening profits for a $16 million second weekend out.
“Fast & Furious 6” seems to be keeping somewhat in line with “Fast Five,” so should that continue, it’s due for a slightly heftier decline than last weekend. If that 44.2% loss comes up to 47%, it’ll take about $10 million in weekend three. Should “Now You See Me” continue to suggest its working with some long legs, it’ll undoubtedly pass “Fast 6” on the charts. Even if that 35.1% weekend one to two loss increases to 42%, it’ll still get to take another $11 million to the bank.
After a weak start, things likely won’t improve for “The Internship.” Even though “This Is The End” isn’t much of a powerhouse, it’ll undoubtedly suck out any momentum “The Internship” has left. Should it lose 50% of its opening profits, “The Internship” will only take another $8 million this time around. Lucky for “The Internship” it’s going into the weekend with a big lead on “Epic,” because if “Epic” winds up only losing 28.5% again, it’ll come very close to stealing that #6 spot. And the same goes for “Star Trek Into Darkness,” too. With “Man of Steel” entering the race, it likely won’t maintain that 31.9% drop, but even if it loses 40%, it’ll still earn about $7 million for its fifth weekend out.
Even though “After Earth” and “The Hangover Part III” are plummeting, both might have enough of a lead on the rest of the competition to get one more weekend in the top ten. Should “After Earth’s” percent change come down from 61.1% to 50%, it’ll post about $5 million while “The Hangover Part III” takes a 48% loss for another $4 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Man of Steel
2. This Is The End
3. The Purge
4. Now You See Me
5. Fast and Furious 6
6. The Internship
7. Epic
8. Star Trek Into Darkness
9. After Earth
10. The Hangover Part III
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
