“The Wolverine” has the weekend all to itself, but even a lack of new competition won’t help it catch “X-Men Origins: Wolverine’s” $85.1 million start. In fact, “Wolverine” might only manage to match “Captain America: The First Avenger’s” $65.1 million opening, which is still a solid haul, but obviously pales in comparison to the previous installment.
Now the question is, will top reviews, a stellar first weekend at the box office, and positive word-of-mouth, help “The Conjuring” over the typical weekend one to two horror slump? Absolutely. Even though it’s moving into weekend two with far more money in the bank, “The Conjuring” could stretch its legs much like “Insidious,” dropping about 35% from weekend one to two for another $25 million and then, with no new horror competition arriving until “You’re Next” hits at the end of August, it could maintain that percent change for quite some time.
“Despicable Me 2” has been enjoying a slow decline ever since its massive July 4th weekend opening, and that trend should continue. It lost 47.4% from weekend one to two and then 43.3% from weekend two to three, so if it loses just a little bit less this time around, let’s say 40%, the film could post about $15 million for weekend four. “Turbo,” on the other hand, could wind up making a swift exit. After a weak $21.3 million start and the “Despicable Me” domination, “Turbo” could face a 50% hit, which would leave it with just $11 million for its second weekend out.
With “Turbo” about to face a significant drop, “Grown Ups 2” has a slight chance of holding onto that #4 spot. Even though “Grown Ups 2” took a rather hefty 52.1% weekend one to two hit, that percent change could level out thanks to the lack of comedy competition. If that number drops to about 45%, the film will post $11 million for its third weekend out.
“RED 2” didn’t have a particularly impressive start, but neither did its predecessor. However, it’s still unlikely that “RED 2” will enjoy an equally slow decline. Whereas “RED” only lost 30.9% from weekend one to two back in 2010, “RED 2” could drop 45%, which would leave it with just $10 million. Fortunately “Pacific Rim” is still going strong overseas because here in the US, it’s bound to continue its swift decline. It’ll lessen that 57.1% weekend one to two dip to about 50%, but that’ll still only give it $8 million for its third weekend out.
After a disappointing $12.7 million start, this will likely be “R.I.P.D.’s” last weekend in the top ten. Should that opening haul get slashed in half, if not more, it’ll only take another $6 million to the bank. With “The Heat” creeping its way down the chart from week to week, its move from weekend four to five is bound to see yet another minimal decline. Even if it loses 38%, it’ll still come in with about $5.5 million and take the #9 spot.
Considering there was a sizable gap between “The Heat” and “World War Z” last weekend, this is where “The Way, Way Back” could sneak in thanks to that 346 theater expansion. If its weekend three $7,239 per theater average drops to about $6,000, it’ll take close to $4 million for its fourth weekend out.
ShockYa.com Predictions
1. The Wolverine
2. The Conjuring
3. Despicable Me 2
4. Turbo
5. Grown Ups 2
6. RED 2
7. Pacific Rim
8. R.I.P.D.
9. The Heat
10. The Way, Way Back
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
