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Box Office Predictions: Labor Day Weekend To Be An Easy Win For One Direction

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On August - 29 - 2013 0 Comment

One more weekend of August, one more weekend of lackluster opening performances. There are three new wide releases hitting theaters, but one is arriving in fewer than 1,000 theaters and the other two just aren’t poised to turn wow-worthy profits.

“One Direction: This Is Us” is getting the widest release and rocks the most hype, but still begs the question, will it wind up a hit like Justin Bieber’s movie or fail to impress like Katy Perry’s? Considering teen girls tend to be a bit more rabid around cute boys, we’ll lean towards the former. Should One Direction come in just under “Justin Bieber: Never Say Never’s” opening per theater average, it’ll win the three-day weekend with about $20 million and might crack $25 million for the full holiday.

“Getaway,” on the other hand, is poised to tank. Should it follow in the footsteps of something like “Premium Rush,” it’ll only end up taking about $7 million to the bank for three days and $9 million for four. And lastly for the new releases, we’ve got the political thriller, “Closed Circuit.” This one actually might end up matching “Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy’s” profits when it hit its highest theater count of 886 locations. Should that be the case, “Closed Circuit” will take just $4 million for its first weekend out, a number that could jump up to about $5 million with the Labor Day bonus.

As for last weekend’s new entries, they’ll likely continue to plummet as “The Butler” and “We’re the Millers” keep on top. “The Butler” even has a good shot at bringing that 33% change down even lower thanks to an additional 220 theaters. If it only dips 25% this time around, it’ll wrap the weekend with another $12 million and then post $15 million for the full holiday. “We’re the Millers” isn’t getting any additional screens, but it’s still got a very good shot at keeping close to last weekend’s 27.4% dip. Should that number get bumped up to about 33%, it’ll enjoy a $9 million fourth weekend out and a $12 million holiday.

And then there’s poor “Mortal Instruments: City of Bones,” which didn’t even manage to make all that much overseas as hoped. Even after only accumulating $9.3 million domestically in its first weekend out, it could still take a 50% hit, which would give it $5 million for three days and $6.5 million for four. “The World’s End,” on the other hand, could hold on stronger. Should its $5,681 per theater average come down to about $4,000, it’ll claim another $6 million in three days, $8 million in four and snag the #6 spot.

“Planes” has enjoyed a notably slow decline since its August 9th opening and considering its free and clear of family friendly fare yet again, it’ll likely retain a significant amount of its profits. Should it drop 36% making the move from weekend three to four, it’ll come in with $5.5 million for the regular weekend and possibly get a leg up on “The World’s End,” posting a total of $8.5 million for the holiday run. “You’re Next” is a tough call. Genre rules say the film is due to see its opening profits slashed in half, but the film didn’t make much to begin with and also doesn’t have any similar films to contend with. However, even if it manages to retain 60% of that $7 million, that still leaves it with just $4 million for three days and possibly $5.5 million for four, which might only be good enough for #9.

“Elysium” is poised to lock down that final spot on the top ten thanks to a projected 45% decline, a dip that’ll leave it with $3.5 million for three days and $5 million for four.

ShockYa.com Predictions

1. One Direction: This is Us

2. The Butler

3. We’re the Millers

4. Getaway

5. Planes

6. The World’s End

7. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones

8. You’re Next

9. Closed Circuit

10. Elysium

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

One Direction This Is Us Box Office Predictions: Labor Day Weekend To Be An Easy Win For One Direction

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