Who’s ready for yet another slow weekend at the box office? Even though “Riddick” is the only new wide release hitting theaters, its outlook still isn’t good. It’s been nearly a decade since “The Chronicles of Riddick” hit theaters and almost 14 years since “Pitch Black,” so the franchise factor will not come into play here. “Riddick” might wind up following “Priest” and kicking off its run with about $15 million.
And now of course that leaves the rest of the top ten to the box office veterans. “One Direction: This Is Us” is bound to see its opening profits slashed in half, at least, so “The Butler” should have no trouble holding on to the #2 spot and “We’re the Millers” will likely stay at #3, too. Should “The Butler” dip about 37%, it’ll take $10 million for its fourth weekend out while “We’re the Millers” will probably drop 43% for a $7.5 million weekend five haul.
Even though “Instructions Not Included” turned out to be a surprise hit, it’s highly unlikely that it’ll retain enough of its opening profits to trump “This Is Us,” too. Should the One Direction movie take a 60% hit – which is incredibly generous considering “Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience” fell a whopping 77.4% moving from weekend one to two – it’ll take $6.5 million for its second weekend out. As for “Instructions Not Included,” even though it blew last weekend’s predictions away, I’m still betting against it. Should that $22,547 per theater average come down to $10,000, it’ll take another $3.5 million to the bank.
With no new family-friendly material on the way, “Planes” should continue to enjoy minimal declines from weekend to weekend. Should it drop 25% moving into its fifth weekend out, it’ll claim another $5.5 million and the 5th spot. “Elysium,” on the other hand, could feel the effects of “Riddick.” If last weekend’s minimal 7% holiday decline gets a boost and hits 45%, “Elysium” will wrap weekend five with $3.5 million, probably coming in just behind “Instructions Not Included.”
“The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones” and “The World’s End” should keep right in line, taking the 8th and 9th slots, respectively. If both “The Mortal Instruments” and “The World’s End” take 42% hits again, the former will earn $3 million and the latter just less than that. And as for “Getaway,” its run will only get worse. Even though it doesn’t really have very far to fall, it’s highly unlikely it’ll retain enough of its opening profits to top “Blue Jasmine,” which has a good shot at dropping just 25% and earning another $2.8 million.
ShockYa Predictions
1. Riddick
2. The Butler
3. We’re the Millers
4. One Direction: This Is Us
5. Planes
6. Instructions Not Included
7. Elysium
8. The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones
9. The World’s End
10. Blue Jasmine
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
