There’s two new wide releases arriving this weekend and while only one is bound to be a bigger winner, the other is still expected to take a modest haul. “Insidious Chapter 2” won’t come close to “The Conjuring’s” $41.9 million start, but James Wan is still bound to go two for two this year. Back in April of 2011, “Insidious” opened with a strong $13.3 million on a $1.5 million budget and even though the cost supposedly went up for “Chapter 2,” so will the opening profits. Should the film manage to surpass “The Last Exorcism,” the sequel will kick off its run with about $23 million. And then we’ve got the Robert De Niro and Michelle Pfeiffer-starrer, “The Family.” Even though the film’s intake won’t match that star power, it could still open almost as big as “Red” and take about $18 million.
Should “Riddick” keep in line with “Resident Evil: Retribution,” it’s due for a hefty drop, possibly losing as much as 65% of its opening profits. However, should it manage to retain just a little bit more than that, it could secure the #3 spot with an $8 million second weekend out. There’s just no way I’m letting “Instructions Not Included” fool me a third time. After the film impressed with a $7.8 million opening weekend and then actually managed to up those profits by 3.9% last weekend, the safest bet is to say that the film will dip 25% in weekend three, take another $6 million, top “The Butler,” and come in at #4.
“The Butler” is due to lose 91 theaters this weekend, but it’s highly unlikely that’ll affect its stellar run. Should it manage to maintain last weekend’s 43.5% drop, it’ll keep ahead of “We’re the Millers” and take another $5 million. As for “We’re the Millers,” even though it’s waving goodbye to 207 locations and it is finally facing some direct competition thanks to the family and comedy themes in “The Family,” it’s still got a chance at dropping just 40% again and securing another $4.5 million.
“Planes” is locked to lose 294 theaters, but with no new family-friendly competition entering the race, it might even manage to ease last weekend’s 46.8% loss to about 40%, which would give it another $2.5 million. On the other hand, things will likely continue to be quite grim for “One Direction: This Is Us.” After dropping a devastating 74.4% moving from weekend one to two, it might plummet another 50% in weekend three. Should that be the case, “Elysium” could surpass that $2 million weekend three total with $2.2 million of its own.
It’ll be a tight race between “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters,” “Blue Jasmine,” “The World’s End,” “The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones,” and “Getaway” for that #10 spot, but considering “Blue Jasmine” is one of few retaining all of its screening locations and seems to have the longest legs of the bunch, it’ll likely take that last spot on the top ten with about $1.5 million.
ShockYa Predictions
1. Insidious Chapter 2
2. The Family
3. Riddick
4. Instructions Not Guaranteed
5. The Butler
6. We’re the Millers
7. Planes
8. Elysium
9. One Direction: This Is Us
10. Blue Jasmine
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
