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Box Office Predictions: The Big Money to Drift Towards Gravity

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On October - 3 - 2013 0 Comment

Between the 3,450+ theater count, rave reviews, and Oscar buzz, “Gravity” could be heading towards a very strong start. It likely won’t manage to match “Taken 2’s” colossal $49.5 million October opening, but it could top “Real Steel” by kicking off its run with $30 million even. “Runner Runner” will make it into 3,000 theaters, but its weakening promotional campaign could lessen its box office potential. Between that and the fact that “Gravity” is poised to dominate the weekend, “Runner Runner” might be left with just a little more than last year’s “Alex Cross,” about $13 million.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2” is bound to lead the box office veterans. The first film only dipped 17.4% making the move from weekend one to weekend two, but considering “Cloudy 2” took a bigger opening weekend haul, it’s more likely that it’ll drop 30% and post $23 million for its second weekend out. “Prisoners” fell a little harder than expected last weekend, but that 47.8% dip could level out just a bit this time around. Should that number come down to about 40%, “Prisoners” will post $6.5 million for its third weekend out.

That should make the #4 spot an easy grab for “Rush.” Even though it isn’t getting another massive theater count boost, it should still manage to keep that percent change low. If it drops just 30%, it’ll top “Prisoners” by taking another $7 million to the bank. “Baggage Claim” and “Don Jon” look to keep in line. Should “Baggage Claim” see its $4,455 per theater average slip to about $3,000, it’ll take another $6 million while “Don Jon” could be facing a 40% dip, which would leave it about $5.5 million.

Insidious Chapter 2” is falling fast, but early Halloween excitement could give it a little boost. If it brings that 52.5% weekend two to three fall down to about 45%, it’ll take $3.5 million for its fourth weekend out. And here’s where “Metallica Through the Never” will likely slip in. It took $5,482 per theater in 305 locations last weekend. Should that number come down to about $4,000, but its theater count go up to 650, it’ll take $2.6 million and come in at #9.

Lastly, even though “Instructions Not Guaranteed” is clearly on its way out, it’s got longer legs than “The Family” and also enough of a lead on “We’re the Millers” and “The Butler” to spend just one more weekend in the top ten. If it drops 37%, it’ll add another $2.1 million to its already impressive $39.1 million domestic total.

ShockYa Predictions

1. Gravity

2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

3. Runner Runner

4. Rush

5. Prisoners

6. Baggage Claim

7. Don Jon

8. Insidious Chapter 2

9. Metallica Through the Never

10. Instructions Not Guaranteed

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

Sandra Bullock in Gravity

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