“Captain Phillips” is riding the Oscar buzz wave, but is that enough for it to keep up with “Gravity?” It’s highly unlikely. After “Gravity” demolished its competition in its opening weekend, odds are, it’s going to hold strong in weekend two. After accumulating almost $50 million last October, “Taken 2” dropped 55.8%. However, considering the overwhelming amount of positive word-of-mouth, “Gravity” has a good shot at retaining at least 60% of its profits for a highly impressive $33.5 million second weekend out.
However, that doesn’t mean “Captain Phillips” will get off to a poor start. In fact, it might match “Flight” with a $24.9 million opening total. “Machete Kills,” on the other hand, could feel the effects of “Captain Phillips” and “Gravity’s” big numbers, which will probably leave it with just $11 million for its first weekend out, an opening total similar to that of the 2010 original.
Back with the box office veterans, we’ve got “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2” leading the rest of the pack. Awards buzz or not, “Captain Phillips” and “Gravity” are not family friendly, so “Cloudy 2” should continue to hold strong. Should that 38.4% weekend one to two dip creep up to about 42%, it’ll still take in another $12 million, probably coming in just ahead of “Machete Kills.”
Even though “Runner Runner” only managed to claim $7.7 million its first weekend out, it could see that little bit of money slip away fast. Should it lose 50% of its opening profits, it’ll only take about $4 million, barely enough for the #5 spot. With “Gravity” and “Captain Phillips” claiming a significant amount of the spotlight, “Prisoners” and “Rush” could be heading towards rather hefty hits. If “Prisoners” drops 47% again and “Rush” manages to bring last weekend’s 55.3% change down to about the same, the former will post $3 million and the latter about $2.4 million.
“Don Jon” and “Baggage Claim” could find themselves in similar positions. After suffering substantial weekend one to two losses, the numbers are bound to level out a bit. Should “Don Jon’s” 52.1% dip come down to 45%, it’ll take $2.2 million and come in just behind “Rush” while “Baggage Claim” might only manage to bring its 54.9% loss down to 50%, which would leave it with a mere $2 million for its third weekend out. Lastly we’ve got “Insidious Chapter 2.” Ever since its 65.7% weekend one to two drop, its percent change has lessened significantly from weekend to weekend, but weekend four might mark the end of that trend. Should the film maintain last weekend’s 40.5% dip, it’ll take a total of $2.3 million and the #8 spot.
ShockYa Predictions
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
4. Machete Kills
5. Runner Runner
6. Prisoners
7. Rush
8. Insidious Chapter 2
9. Don Jon
10. Baggage Claim
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
