Box Office Predictions: Carrie Can’t Pull Down Gravity

Even after two weekends at #1 and a hot property entering the race, “Gravity” will likely stay on top. As the only horror release leading up to Halloween, “Carrie” could get an added boost from holiday hype. It should have no trouble trumping “Texas Chainsaw 3D’s” $21.7 million start, but if it’s going to top “Gravity,” it’ll need to put at least $28 million in the bank because, odds are, “Gravity” will retain 65% of its weekend two profits and snag $28 million of its own.

Considering “Escape Plan” and “The Fifth Estate” aren’t poised to post big numbers, “Captain Phillips” should have no trouble securing the #3 spot. Thanks to Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger, “Escape Plan” should take more than April’s “Lockout,” but it might only manage to climb as high as “Alex Cross,” kicking off its run with $11 million. While “The Fifth Estate” does have the benefit of some awards buzz, its marketing campaign and theater count will keep it from turning much of a profit. Should it pull an “Ides of March,” it’ll take $4,700 at each of its 1,769 theaters for a total of $8.5 million. As for “Captain Phillips,” it won’t hold as strong as “Gravity” did making the move from weekend one to two, but it could come close. If it dips just 30%, it’ll post $18 million for its second weekend out.

With no new kid-friendly material hitting theaters, “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2” should be in good shape. If last weekend’s 34.3% decline creeps up to 37%, it’ll take in $7.5 million for its fourth weekend out.

And that brings us to the box office drop-off where earnings are so minimal, $100,000 could make the difference. After an abysmal start, “Machete Kills” could be in for a rough second weekend out. Should its nominal opening profits get slashed in half, that’ll leave it with just $2 million, giving “Prisoners” a good shot at surpassing it. “Prisoners” is losing 695 theaters so its 36.8% weekend three to four percent change is bound to come up to at least 40%. Should that be the case, it’ll secure another $2.1 million, putting it just ahead of “Machete Kills.”

Now the question is, which films can hold on strong enough to fend off “Enough Said?” That one added 169 theaters last weekend and only dipped 12.8% because of it. Considering it’s getting another 151 locations this time around, there’s no reason to think it’d drop anymore than that moving into weekend five. Should it repeat that 12.8% change, it’ll post another $1.65 million. Between “Insidious Chapter 2,” “Rush,” “Don Jon” and “Baggage Claim,” the only one with a decent shot at coming in above that is “Insidious Chapter 2” because it’s riding the Halloween wave, has already proved its got the longer legs, and is losing less theaters than most. Should “Insidious” fall 36%, it’ll claim the ninth spot with $1.7 million.

ShockYa Predictions

10. Insidious Chapter 2

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)