The time has come. Another “Hunger Games” movie is about to rock the box office, and probably even more so than the last. Even though “The Hunger Games” opened unopposed on March 23, 2012 with $152.5 million, “Delivery Man” and what’s left of “Thor” shouldn’t pose much of a threat. Plus, “Catching Fire” should get an added boost both from the incredible amount of hype, the impending holiday and the fact that it’s already got a built-in audience. With over 4,100 theaters, there’s a good chance “Catching Fire” could kick off its domestic run with $160 million.
As for poor “Delivery Man,” it just doesn’t have a shot. Not only is “Catching Fire” taking too big a chunk out of the box office, but “Delivery Man” hasn’t had much of a promotional push and now it’s getting slammed with poor reviews. Vince Vaughn won’t even manage to match “The Internship’s” $17.3 million start with this one. “Delivery Man” will likely wind up more in line with a $13 million opening like “The Watch.”
With “Thor: The Dark” world losing 128 theaters and “The Best Man Holiday” gaining 17 after that surprisingly strong opening, those two could wind up swapping places. Should “Thor” take a 50% hit and “The Best Man Holiday” lose just 40%, “Thor” will take the #3 spot with $18 million while “The Best Man Holiday” comes in at #2 with just the slightest bit more.
With “Free Birds” dropping 439 theaters, “Last Vegas” should have no trouble keeping on top. However, with “The Delivery Man” entering the race, “Last Vegas” likely won’t be able to repeat last weekend’s exceptionally minimal 23.5% drop. Should that number creep up to about 35%, it’ll post $5.5 million for its fourth weekend out. As for “Free Birds,” with that theater loss, it could be looking at a percent change closer to 40%, which would still let it take another $4.8 million to the bank.
Fortunately “Bad Grandpa” had a $1.5 million lead on “Gravity” last weekend because even though “Gravity” is waving goodbye to 715 locations, “Bad Grandpa” is losing 565 theaters of its own. Should “Bad Grandpa” take its biggest hit yet, possibly 45%, it’ll post about $4 million for its fifth weekend out while “Gravity” is poised to retain 65% of its weekend seven earnings for $3.9 million in weekend eight.
Now the question is, can “Ender’s Game” hold on strong enough to beat out “12 Years a Slave” for the ninth spot and considering the former is losing a whopping 1,201 theaters and the latter is gaining 63, it’s highly unlikely. Should it dip 35% and take another $3 million, #9 will be an easy get for “12 Years.” Meanwhile, “Ender” better prey it manages to hold on to half of its weekend three earnings, because if it falls far enough below that $3 million mark, “Captain Phillips” could steal that last spot.
ShockYa Predictions
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2. The Best Man Holiday
3. Thor: The Dark World
4. Delivery Man
5. Last Vegas
6. Free Birds
7. Bad Grandpa
8. Gravity
9. 12 Years a Slave
10. Ender’s Game
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
