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Box Office Predictions: Can Wolf Edge Out The Hobbit?

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On December - 26 - 2013 0 Comment

It’s a crowded Christmas weekend at the box office and there’s only so much cash to go around. Even though “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” topped “The Wolf of Wall Street” on Wednesday, the former’s appeal will slowly decline while the latter should stretch its legs through the weekend. Should “The Hobbit’s” per theater average come down from $8,021 to about $6,000, it’ll take another $23 million while “Wolf of Wall Street” will likely kick off its run with $9,000 per location and just over $23 million for its first three-day weekend out.

Even though “Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues” didn’t open as strong as expected, it should be able to maintain considering there’s no new direct comedy competition. If it dips 37%, it’ll take $17 million for its second weekend out. However, “Anchorman” could still find itself in a similar position as “The Hobbit” and still lose the third spot to newcomer, “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.” Even though “Walter Mitty” came in just behind “Anchorman” on Wednesday, it’s “Walter Mitty” that’ll have the staying power. If it locks in a $6,000 per theater average at its 2,909 theaters, it’ll knock “Anchorman” down to #4 with $17.5 million of its own.

Now the question is, will “47 Ronin” have the same effect on “American Hustle” and “Frozen?” In “Frozen’s” case, the answer is probably yes, but “American Hustle” should manage to beat “47 Ronin” for the #5 spot. On Wednesday, “American Hustle” and “47 Ronin” were neck in neck, the former with $2,952 per theater and the latter with $2,616. Should “47 Ronin” manage to snag $5,000 per theater over the weekend for $13.5 million in total, “American Hustle” can’t dip more than 30% to keep right on top. As for “Frozen,” it’s maintained exceptionally well over the last five weeks and even though it’s losing 205 locations, it should still achieve the same this time around. Even if last weekend’s 13% decline gets bumped up to 30%, the #7 spot will still be an easy grab.

Saving Mr. Banks” hasn’t been much of a moneymaker, but it should hold strong in its second weekend as a wide release. If it drops 25%, it’ll lock in #8 with a solid $7 million total. “Grudge Match” had a rough first day out, but considering both “A Madea Christmas” and “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” trailed well behind on Wednesday, it should still be able to snag #9 with about $6 million for its first weekend out. Even though “Madea” kept ahead on Wednesday, come the weekend, Christmastime hype is long gone and it’ll be playing in less locations than “Catching Fire” so “The Hunger Games” will likely get to enjoy one last go-around in the top ten by putting another $5 million in the bank.

ShockYa Predictions

1. The Wolf of Wall Street

2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

3. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

4. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues

5. American Hustle

6. 47 Ronin

7. Frozen

8. Saving Mr. Banks

9. Grudge Match

10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

Wolf of Wall Street Box Office Predictions: Can Wolf Edge Out The Hobbit?

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