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Box Office Predictions: Awards Contenders Will Hold Strong But Lone Survivor To Come Out On Top

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On January - 9 - 2014 0 Comment

The first weekend of the year wasn’t particularly kind to box office newcomers and the same will be true in weekend two because the only new wide contender is “The Legend of Hercules.” The movie doesn’t have much hype, is riding on whatever star power Kellan Lutz has left after “The Twilight Saga,” it’s only hitting 2,000 theaters and it’s got to fend off films with Oscar buzz. If you take all of those factors into account it puts “Hercules” in a very similar position to last year’s “Gangster Squad,” which came out against “Zero Dark Thirty’s” wide expansion and lost quite a bit of steam thanks to poor reviews. Should “Legend of Hercules” kick off its run with a $5,500 per theater average too, it’ll be looking at $11 million in total for its first weekend out.

That brings us to our wide expansions – “Her” and “Lone Survivor.” “Her” posted $16,442 per theater at 47 theaters last weekend, but as it’s about to put 1,700 more locations in the mix, that number is bound to come down. Should it hold at about $7,000, “Her” will lock in roughly $12.5 million. As for “Lone Survivor,” it scored a whopping $42,429 per theater average last weekend, but that was in just two locations. By bumping up its theater count up to 2,700, that number could come all the way down to about $6,500, but that would still give it $17.5 million, more than enough for the top spot.

And now it’s back to the box office veterans. Considering “Paranormal Activity: The Marked” ones is bound to plummet, “Frozen” should have no trouble keeping ahead of it. In fact, if “Frozen’s” weekend six to seven 31.5% change only inches up to 35%, it might even come in at #2 with $12.7 million for its eighth weekend out. As for “The Marked Ones,” odds are, it’ll take that typical horror genre 60% weekend one to two hit and should that be the case, it’ll be left with just about $7.5 million, and that’ll only be good enough for eighth place.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” enjoyed a strong run through the holidays, but now it’s time for it to make its way out. With attention shifting to those with awards potential, “The Hobbit” could wind up taking a 50% hit, giving it just under $8 million, but not the #5 spot. In fact, that might not be enough for #6 either. Both “The Wolf of Wall Street” and “American Hustle” are poised to hold strong. Even if “Wolf’s” 27.9% per theater average comes up to 30% and “American Hustle’s” goes from 33.7% to 35%, the former will claim $9 million and the latter $8 million, enough for the fifth and sixth spots, respectively.

The final two slots on the top ten will be a close call between “Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” and “The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.” “Mr. Banks” and “Walter Mitty” are both riding the awards season wave, but so are a number of other films, and considering there’s nothing in direct competition with “Anchorman 2,” it’s looking like Ron Burgundy will hold well enough to lock in #9. Should it bring that 45.9% weekend two to three decline down to 40%, “Anchorman 2” will wrap weekend four with another $6 million in the bank. As for “Walter Mitty” and “Mr. Banks,” “Walter Mitty” is in more theaters, but its “Mr. Banks” with the stronger per theater average and at this point, its those longer legs that’ll keep it on top with $5.5 million.

ShockYa Predictions

1. Lone Survivor

2. Frozen

3. Her

4. The Legend of Hercules

5. The Wolf of Wall Street

6. American Hustle

7. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

8. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones

9. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues

10. Saving Mr. Banks

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

Lone Survivor Box Office Predictions: Awards Contenders Will Hold Strong But Lone Survivor To Come Out On Top

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