We’ve got a big one on the way. “The Lego Movie” is due out in 3,775 theaters tomorrow and it’s going to put each and every one of them to good use. It’s an odd time for a new animated movie, but considering the franchise already has a well-established fan base, “The Lego Movie” should manage to split the difference between “The Croods” and “Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax,” and kick off its run with about $55 million.
Unfortunately, our other two wide releases could debut with disappointingly soft openings. Even though “The Monuments Men” is getting over 3,000 theaters and has George Clooney, Matt Damon, Bill Murray and more on the roster, the promotional campaign has been nearly non-existent. It’ll likely wind up coming in just behind 2011’s “The Adjustment Bureau” with about $18 million. And last up for the new releases is the latest young adult book-to-film adaptation, “Vampire Academy.” The Weinstein Company has been pushing this one hard and fans of the source material are certainly eating it all up, but that begs the question, will the film appeal to a wide audience? It’s unlikely, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll fall in line with dismal openings like the ones for “Beautiful Creatures” and “The Host.” “Vampire Academy” might have a shot at securing an “Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter”-sized haul of about $16 million.
“Ride Along” has held strong thus far, but it’s time for it to make its way out. It only dipped 48.7% making the move from weekend one to two and then just 43.5% moving through weekend three, but with three new wide releases entering the race, this could be the week that percent change shaves off half of its previous week’s earnings. Should that be the case, “Ride Along” will claim another $6 million, which will still be good enough for fourth place.
It’s a good thing “Frozen” squeezed in that sing-along release prior to “The Lego Movie’s” debut, because now that that one is poised to snag the big money, “Frozen” could finally start slipping. Should it wind up taking a 40% hit, it’s biggest yet since moving from its first to second wide weekend out, it’ll take just about $5.3 million. That might not sound like much, but it’ll still be more than enough to keep on top of “That Awkward Moment.” Even though the Zac Efron-starrer is only in its second weekend out and isn’t facing any new direct competition, its lackluster debut and minimal $3,112 per theater average proves there’s no interest, so, odds are, it could be facing a 45% hit, which would leave it with just about $4.8 million.
“The Nut Job” has been enjoying a solid run, but it doesn’t have the legs that “Frozen” does so could take a much bigger hit courtesy of “The Lego Movie.” Should it wind up losing half of its weekend three profits, it’ll only take $3.5 million and that won’t be enough to keep on top of “Lone Survivor,” which has the benefit of facing less direct competition. Should “Lone Survivor” repeat last weekend’s 45% dip, it’ll secure the seventh spot with just under $4 million.
Even though “American Hustle” is staying strong, both “Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit” and “Labor Day” have enough of a lead to get one more weekend in the top ten. Lucky for “Labor Day” that “Jack Ryan” is losing 768 theaters because that rock bottom $2,003 per theater average is not a good sign. Should “Labor Day” drop 45% and “Jack Ryan” take a 50% hit, the former will still come in at #9 with about $2.8 million while the latter takes #10 with $2.7 million.
ShockYa Predictions
1. The Lego Movie
2. The Monuments Men
3. Vampire Academy
4. Ride Along
5. Frozen
6. That Awkward Moment
7. Lone Survivor
8. The Nut Job
9. Labor Day
10. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
