“300” blew away the box office this very weekend back in 2007, but seven years is a long time and that style of filmmaking is no longer a hot, new thing. The sequel, “300: Rise of an Empire” will still win the weekend, especially considering it’s only facing off against a family-friendly animated film, but it doesn’t have a shot at matching the original’s $70 million start. It’s much more likely that it’ll wind up in line with “Wrath of the Titans” with about $35 million.
A March debut does tend to mean big money for animated releases, but with “The Lego Movie” still going strong, “Mr. Peabody & Sherman” could have a tough time. Fox is likely gunning for an opening similar to “The Croods,” but there’s typically less to go around at the beginning of the month, so if “300” is already claiming $35 million, it’s much more likely that “Peabody” will wind up with about $25 million.
As for our box office veterans, both “Non-Stop” and “Son of God” will continue to lead the pack. Both opened strong and are expected to stretch their legs, possibly only dipping 40% moving into their second weekends out, giving “Non-Stop” another $17 million and “Son of God” another $15 million. With “Peabody & Sherman” opening in nearly 4,000 theaters and “The Lego Movie” losing 480, “Lego” could be in for its biggest hit yet. If it loses 40% of its weekend four profits, it’ll take $12 million this time around.
Even though “3 Days to Kill” was sitting pretty at #4 last weekend, its swift decline and the fact that it’s losing 524 theaters could be detrimental. If it loses half of its weekend two profits, the remaining $2.5 million might only be good enough for the #8 spot. “The Monuments Men,” “Robocop,” and “Pompeii” could all find themselves in a similar position, too. Whereas they’re losing 1,001, 1,171 and 1,000 theaters respectively, “Frozen” is only saying goodbye to 86. Tack on the fact that “Frozen” should get a nice Oscar win boost and there’s a good shot it might only lose 15%, take in another $3 million and beat out all three of those movies for the #6 spot.
As for those remaining three, “The Monuments Men” will undoubtedly come out on top, and possibly even keep ahead of “3 Days to Kill,” too. If it loses 45% and the other two fall by 50%, it’ll take #7 with $2.7 million while “Robocop” comes in just behind “3 Days to Kill” with $2.2 million and “Pompeii” follows right behind that with $2.1 million of its own.
ShockYa Predictions
1. 300: Rise of an Empire
2. Mr. Peabody & Sherman
3. Non-Stop
4. Son of God
5. The Lego Movie
6. Frozen
7. The Monuments Men
8. 3 Days to Kill
9. Robocop
10. Pompeii
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
