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Box Office Predictions: Godzilla To Stomp All Over The Competition

Posted by Perri Nemiroff On May - 15 - 2014 0 Comment

Ready for another big one? “Godzilla” is set to storm into over 3,800 theaters this weekend and it’ll likely dominate each and every one of them. Even though “Neighbors” and “The Amazing Spider-Man 2” are still going strong, positive reactions and reviews could give “Godzilla” some serious momentum through the weekend, possibly enough to accumulate about $70 million like “Star Trek Into Darkness” did last year.

“Million Dollar Arm” is our second newcomer, but it’s highly unlikely it’ll earn enough to trump “Neighbors” or “The Amazing Spider-Man 2.” With no new comedy competition and such a stellar start, “Neighbors” should be in particularly good shape this time around. In fact, there’s a good chance it might only lose 45% of its opening profits and if that’s the case, it’ll post a strong $27 million total for weekend two. “Spider-Man,” however, will feel the effects of “Godzilla,” but at this point, it’s already suffered its monstrous weekend one to two hit, so that 61.2% loss is bound to come down quite a bit. Should it level off at around 50%, “Spider-Man” will take another $16 million to the bank.

Here’s where “Million Dollar Arm” will come in. It’s accumulating lukewarm reviews and has had a rather minimal promotional push (especially compared to “Godzilla”), so it could find itself in a position similar to that of “Trouble with the Curve.” If that’s the case and it manages to post about $3,700 per theater, it’ll kick off its run in fourth place with an opening total of $11 million.

There are no noteworthy theater losses this weekend, so the rest of last weekend’s top ten should keep in line. “The Other Woman” is enjoying a very slow decline, which will likely continue thanks to the lack of new material specifically geared towards female moviegoers. There’s a good chance “The Other Woman” will manage to hold onto about 65% of its weekend three profits and that would leave it with another $6 million to take to the bank. “Heaven is for Real” is inching down the chart ever so slowly as well and should also be able to continue to do the same. If it drops 25% this time around, it’ll post another $5.5 million, which will be good enough for the sixth position.

Captain America: The Winter Solider” and “Rio 2” are the only two that have a chance of switching spots. “Captain America” has been on the swifter decline, but last weekend it managed to retain a significant amount of its previous weekend’s profits. Even though that might suggest it’s “Captain America” with the longer legs, “Captain America” will take the direct hit from “Godzilla,” not “Rio 2.” However, even if “Captain America” suffered a 40% loss and “Rio” drops just 35%, the former will still lock in #7 with $3.5 million while the latter comes in just behind with $3.2 million of its own.

Even though “Moms’ Night Out” only made $4.3 million last weekend, $4,129 per theater at 1,044 theaters isn’t really a bad start. It should have no trouble maintaining 45% of that opening number and easily securing the ninth position with a $2.5 million weekend two total. However, “Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return” is a different story. That $1,410 per theater average is just plain old bad. Even though it only made $3.7 million opening weekend, there’s a good chance it’ll only retain 45% of that the second time around. It’s a good thing “Divergent” was so far behind last weekend; otherwise, a $1.7 million weekend two total might not have been good enough for #10 now.

ShockYa Predictions

1. Godzilla – $70 million

2. Neighbors – $27 million

3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $16 million

4. Million Dollar Arm – $11 million

5. The Other Woman – $6 million

6. Heaven is for Real – $5.5 million

7. Captain America: The Winter Solider – $3.5 million

8. Rio 2 – $3.3 million

9. Moms’ Night Out – $2.5 million

10. Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return – $1.7 million

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Stats via Box Office Mojo)

Godzilla2 Box Office Predictions: Godzilla To Stomp All Over The Competition

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