{"id":136852,"date":"2013-12-12T10:41:51","date_gmt":"2013-12-12T17:41:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shockya.com\/news\/?p=136852"},"modified":"2013-12-12T10:41:51","modified_gmt":"2013-12-12T17:41:51","slug":"box-office-predictions-the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-to-open-big-but-not-as-big-as-an-unexpected-journey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shockya.com\/news\/2013\/12\/12\/box-office-predictions-the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-to-open-big-but-not-as-big-as-an-unexpected-journey\/","title":{"rendered":"Box Office Predictions: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to Open Big, But Not as Big as An Unexpected Journey"},"content":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re still two weeks away from a potentially enormous Christmas Day opening with five new wide releases vying for the top spot, but for now, we\u2019ve got two heavy hitters worth keeping an eye on. Even though \u201cThe Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug<\/strong>\u201d is arriving on the exact same weekend as its predecessor, it\u2019s going to have to contend with far more competition than \u201cAn Unexpected Journey,\u201d which will likely keep it from matching that film\u2019s $84.6 million start. The second strongest performance the weekend \u201cAn Unexpected Journey\u201d arrived was \u201cRise of the Guardians\u201d with a mere $7.1 million. This weekend, \u201cFrozen,\u201d \u201cThe Hunger Games: Catching Fire\u201d and \u201cA Madea Christmas\u201d are all expected to earn over $13 million so there\u2019s a good chance \u201cThe Desolation of Smaug\u201d will have to settle for $70 million.<\/p>\n

With Madea<\/strong>, on the other hand, a Madea movie is a Madea movie and comes with a built-in audience. The last film in the long-running series, \u201cMadea\u2019s Witness Protection,\u201d opened with $25 million in the summer of 2012 and that was against some very high earners like \u201cTed,\u201d \u201cMagic Mike\u201d and \u201cBrave,\u201d so there\u2019s no reason to think that this installment won\u2019t be able to do the same, if not surpass that total and come close to the $30 million mark.<\/p>\n

Even though both \u201cFrozen<\/strong>\u201d and \u201cCatching Fire<\/strong>\u201d took rather hefty hits last weekend, those numbers could level out just the slightest bit as we creep closer to the holiday. Should \u201cFrozen\u201d manage to bring that 53.1% drop down to 50%, it\u2019ll take the #3 spot with about $16 million and should \u201cCatching Fire\u201d see a similar percent change, it\u2019ll come in right behind with another $13 million. <\/p>\n

Lucky for last weekend\u2019s big flop, \u201cOut of the Furnace<\/strong>,\u201d that \u201cThor: The Dark World<\/strong>\u201d is falling so fast, otherwise it\u2019d never manage to snag that #5 spot. Should the \u201cOut of the Furnace\u201d per theater average dip from $2,484 to $1,700, it\u2019ll take just $3.6 million for its second weekend out. Considering it just doesn\u2019t have all that far to fall anymore, it\u2019s highly unlikely that \u201cThor\u201d will take another 56.6% hit. If it retains 60% of its weekend five profits, it\u2019ll come in behind \u201cOut of the Furnace\u201d with a weekend six total of $2.9 million.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s where things will come down to dollars and cents. \u201cDelivery Man<\/strong>\u201d barely kept ahead of \u201cHomefront<\/strong>\u2019s\u201d $3.4 million last weekend with $3.7 million of its own, but considering \u201cHomefront\u201d is experiencing the faster fall, \u201cDelivery Man\u201d is looking like a sure thing for that #7 spot. Should \u201cDelivery Man\u201d drop 40% and \u201cHomefront\u201d 45%, the former will take $2.2 million and the latter $1.9 million. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe Book Thief<\/strong>\u201d should have no trouble holding strong enough to snag #9 with another 45% drop and $1.4 million weekend six total, but \u201cThe Best Man Holiday<\/strong>\u201d could feel the effects of \u201cMadea\u201d and lose the last spot on the top ten to \u201cPhilomena<\/strong>.\u201d Should \u201cBest Man Holiday\u201d take another hefty 60% hit and \u201cPhilomena\u201d repeat its weekend two to three 40% loss, \u201cPhilomena\u201d will come in with $1.3 million, topping \u201cBest Man Holiday\u201d by about $300,000.<\/p>\n

ShockYa Predictions<\/p>\n

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug<\/p>\n

2. A Madea Christmas<\/p>\n

3. Frozen<\/p>\n

4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire<\/p>\n

5. Out of the Furnace<\/p>\n

6. Thor: The Dark World<\/p>\n

7. Delivery Man<\/p>\n

8. Homefront<\/p>\n

9. The Book Thief<\/p>\n

10. Philomena<\/strong><\/p>\n

By Perri Nemiroff<\/a> (via Box Office Mojo<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019re still two weeks away from a potentially enormous Christmas Day opening with five new wide releases vying for the top spot, but for now, we\u2019ve got two heavy hitters worth keeping an eye on. Even though \u201cThe Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug\u201d is arriving on the exact same weekend as its predecessor, it\u2019s going […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":136854,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,1],"tags":[32644,11851,14539,31222,11324,13851,33135,33143,32306,28706,25671,26253],"class_list":["post-136852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-movies","category-news-release","tag-a-madea-christmas","tag-box-office","tag-box-office-predictions","tag-delivery-man","tag-frozen","tag-homefront","tag-out-of-the-furnace","tag-philomena","tag-the-book-thief","tag-the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug","tag-the-hunger-games-catching-fire","tag-thor-the-dark-world"],"apple_news_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nBox 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