{"id":38355,"date":"2010-12-16T22:11:20","date_gmt":"2010-12-17T05:11:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shockya.com\/news\/?p=38355"},"modified":"2010-12-16T22:11:41","modified_gmt":"2010-12-17T05:11:41","slug":"box-office-forecast-tron-legacy-to-derez-the-competition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shockya.com\/news\/2010\/12\/16\/box-office-forecast-tron-legacy-to-derez-the-competition\/","title":{"rendered":"Box Office Forecast: TRON: Legacy To Derez The Competition"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

After a rather tame weekend during which The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader<\/em> easily topped the competition despite a rather weak domestic opening, this one has a few more selections vying for top honors. We’ve got three films making wide debuts and another two expanding significantly.<\/p>\n

\n

Of the newcomers, TRON: Legacy<\/em> is likely to make the biggest impact. It may be opening in about 100 less theaters than Yogi Bear<\/em>, but 234 of those theaters are IMAX. Combine that hefty ticket price with all of the theaters showing the film in non-IMAX 3D and TRON<\/em> already has one heck of a head start. Odds are, TRON<\/em> could hold on through the holiday, too. Now that Harry Potter<\/em> and Narnia<\/em> are out of the way, it\u2019s really the only effect-heavy film hitting theaters for quite a while.<\/p>\n

\n

Yogi Bear<\/em> is an interesting subject because it could really go either way. It could follow in the footsteps of Alvin and the Chipmunks<\/em> and open big with $44.3 million or it could be an absolute cartoon-to-film disaster \u00e0<\/span> la Marmaduke<\/em> and take in just $11.6 million. I\u2019m going to side with the former not only because Yogi Bear<\/em> is opening the same time of year that Alvin and the Chipmunks<\/em> hit theaters, but also because Marmaduke<\/em> had some serious competition, namely Shrek Forever After<\/em>, whereas Yogi Bear<\/em> will really be the only option for younger moviegoers through the holiday.<\/p>\n

\n

How Do You Know<\/em> may have a pretty powerful cast, but it likely won\u2019t be enough for it to trump the competition. In fact, How Do You Know<\/em> might have a tough time even making it into the top five. That one is only being released in 2,500 theaters as compared to TRON<\/em>\u2019s 3,300 and Yogi Bear<\/em>\u2019s 3,400+, and then The Fighter<\/em> is adding on an additional 2,196, bringing its total to 2,200. Considering The Fighter<\/em> opened with a wildly impressive $75,003 per theater average, rising above How Do You Know<\/em> shouldn\u2019t be a problem.<\/p>\n

\n

Another expansion that threatens to crack the top five is Black Swan<\/em>. Last weekend, in just 90 theaters, it pulled in $3.3 million. This weekend, it\u2019s adding on another 860 locations, so even if its per theater average drops from $36,726 to as low as $8,000, we\u2019re still talking about a potential $7 million weekend.<\/p>\n

\n

As for the veterans, if The Voyage of the Dawn Treader<\/em> follows a similar path to Prince Caspian<\/em>, it could experience a 58% drop in week two, which could leave it with just $13 million. Harry Potter<\/em> is on a bit of a landslide and will likely see its intake cut in half, possibly earning around $4 million in week five. Tangled<\/em> is tumbling as well, but at a far slower pace, so that one still stands a chance at earning maybe another $10 million in its fourth week, especially as the kids start gearing up for the holiday.<\/p>\n

\n

The Tourist<\/em> had a rough opening and its second week in theaters likely won\u2019t be much better. Even if it holds up as well as Angelina Jolie\u2019s last movie, Salt<\/em>, which had a far better debut, it\u2019ll still only manage to pull in about $8 million. As for that final spot on the top ten, Megamind<\/em>, Due Date<\/em>, Love and Other Drugs<\/em> and Burlesque<\/em> will likely all fall off the radar, leaving the tenth spot an easy win for Unstoppable<\/em>. Unstoppable<\/em> has held on pretty strong over the past few weeks while Love and Other Drugs<\/em> and Burlesque<\/em> are experiencing faster <\/em>declines and Megamind<\/em> and Due Date<\/em> are simply over and done with.<\/p>\n

\n

Shockya.com Predictions:<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. TRON: Legacy<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

2. Yogi Bear<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

3. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

4. The Fighter<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

5. How Do You Know<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

6. Tangled<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

7. The Tourist<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

8. The Black Swan<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

10. Unstoppable<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

By Perri Nemiroff<\/p>\n

\n

\"TRON:<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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Of the newcomers, TRON: Legacy 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