{"id":53265,"date":"2011-06-02T14:31:24","date_gmt":"2011-06-02T21:31:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.shockya.com\/news\/?p=53265"},"modified":"2011-06-02T14:31:24","modified_gmt":"2011-06-02T21:31:24","slug":"box-office-predictions-first-class-may-find-itself-on-par-with-x2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shockya.com\/news\/2011\/06\/02\/box-office-predictions-first-class-may-find-itself-on-par-with-x2\/","title":{"rendered":"Box Office Predictions: First Class May Find Itself On Par With X2"},"content":{"rendered":"

We’ve hit June; is it starting to feel like summer yet? Clearly the box office is getting in the mood because we’ve already had three $80 million+ openings. Will X-Men: First Class<\/I> make #4? I’m betting on it. Not only is First Class<\/I> the only new wide release hitting theaters this weekend, but it’s backed by fantastic reviews and a dedicated fan base. Back in 2000, X-Men<\/I> opened to the tune of $54.5 million while X2: X-Men United<\/I> boosted that number to a whopping $85.6 million. Then, in 2006, X-Men: The Last Stand<\/I> blew both out of the water, kicking off its 18-week run with $102.8 million. First Class<\/I> will undoubtedly cross the $80 million mark; the question is, how high will it go? Considering the fact that the veteran films are still quite strong, perhaps as high as X2<\/I> with about $85 million.<\/p>\n

The remaining nine positions on the top ten are all about who\u2019s got the longest legs. Yes, The Hangover Part II<\/I> kicked off its run with a $103.4 million four-day weekend bang, but unlike its predecessor it looks to take a pretty steep week one to two hit. Using its $85.9 million three-day total, The Hangover Part II<\/I> is poised to lose about 50%, leaving it with $43 million. While Kung Fu Panda 2<\/I> may have had a weaker opening than DreamWorks and Paramount hoped, positive word of mouth should make for a slower decline, hopefully just 40%. Using the film\u2019s $47.7 million three-day opening rather than its $60.9 million holiday start, a loss of 40% would leave it with $29 million.<\/p>\n

As expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides<\/I> started off with a somewhat similar decline to At World\u2019s End<\/I>. After a $114.7 million three-day start, At World\u2019s End<\/I> fell 61.5%, taking in $44.2 million in week two and then went on to lose just 52.2% in week three. On Stranger Tides<\/I> may have only lost 55.8% from week one to two, but that doesn\u2019t necessarily mean it\u2019ll still fall that much less than At World\u2019s End<\/I> this time around. In fact, At World\u2019s End<\/I>\u2019s steeper drop is likely due to the fact that it made more in week one. The higher you climb, the harder you fall, right? Well, once you take that initial drop, things level out, and On Stranger Tides<\/I> will level out on a lower plain than At World\u2019s End<\/I>. Then you\u2019ve got to consider the competition. In week three, At World\u2019s End<\/I> only had to fend off Ocean\u2019s Thirteen<\/I>, which only went on to take in $36 million to start. X-Men: First Class<\/I> is a whole different story. Ultimately, On Stranger Tides<\/I> could wind up losing more this time around, perhaps as much as 65% leaving it with just $14 million.<\/p>\n

Apparently The Hangover Part II<\/I> didn\u2019t have that much of an effect on Bridesmaids<\/I> because after only losing 20.4% from week one to two, it managed to pull off the same during week two to three. Can the comedy do it again? It\u2019s doubtful, but that percent change likely won\u2019t creep up very much, maybe only by an additional 10%. Should Bridesmaids<\/I> take a 30% week four tumble, that\u2019ll give it another $11 million. As for Thor<\/I>, it looks as though First Class<\/I> is about to give it a hefty shove. The most Thor<\/I>\u2019s lost in a single weekend is 55.5% and while it shouldn\u2019t drop more than that, it could wind up losing just as much and that would leave it with $4 million for week five.<\/p>\n

Should Thor<\/I> take such a tough tumble, Fast Five<\/I> might be able to slide right by. While Fast Five<\/I> fell harder than Thor<\/I> from week one to two, ever since, it\u2019s held steadier. No, Fast Five<\/I> won\u2019t be putting up a big number in its sixth week, but it could wind up taking another $5 million to the bank. However, what could top both Thor<\/I> and Fast Five<\/I> this weekend isn\u2019t a summer blockbuster, yet a Woody Allen\u2019s Midnight in Paris<\/I>. That one blew everyone away by cracking the top ten with $1.9 million in its second week thanks to a 52-theater expansion. This weekend, it\u2019s getting 89 more and should it maintain its per theater average of $33,268, we could be looking at a $5 million intake for week three.<\/p>\n

As for the final two spots, should Rio<\/I> continue to landslide, it could leave them wide open for Jumping the Broom<\/I> and Something Borrowed<\/I> to make one last appearance on the top ten, both of which could still take in another $1 million.<\/p>\n

Shockya.com Predictions<\/p>\n

1. X-Men: First Class<\/p>\n

2. The Hangover Part II<\/p>\n

3. Kung Fu Panda 2<\/p>\n

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides<\/p>\n

5. Bridesmaids<\/p>\n

6. Midnight In Paris<\/p>\n

7. Fast Five<\/p>\n

8. Thor<\/p>\n

9. Jumping the Broom<\/p>\n

10. Something Borrowed<\/B><\/p>\n

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"X-Men:<\/a>
X-Men: First Class<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We’ve hit June; is it starting to feel like summer yet? Clearly the box office is getting in the mood because we’ve already had three $80 million+ openings. Will X-Men: First Class make #4? I’m betting on it. 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