We could be heading towards another powerful weekend at the box office. The Amazing Spider-Man is already off to a stellar start thanks to a Tuesday release and even though its numbers might diminish come Friday, it still could match, if not exceed Transformers’ opening weekend. That one opened with $27.9 million on the Tuesday before a Wednesday July 4th and still went on to take another $70 million over the three-day weekend. Considering The Amazing Spider-Man has already trumped Transformers’ start, let’s put Spidey at a $75 million first weekend out.
The next movie out for the 3D concert category is Katy Perry: Part of Me. Glee the 3D Concert Movie absolutely tanked last summer, but Katy Perry has a much more Justin Bieber-like fan base. While there’s no shot of Part of Me coming close to Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, she could earn as much as Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience, about $12 million. Last up for the new releases is Savages and, even though there’s a lack of gritty thriller competition, it might not make much more than Colombiana, about $10 million.
Last weekend’s newcomers are particularly exciting to predict this time around. After downright incredible starts for both Ted and Magic Mike, I’ve got high hopes for both to hold on strong and the fact that both are getting additional theaters could keep them from losing more than 40%. Should that be the case, Ted would take the #2 spot with $32 million and Magic Mike would come in at #3 with $23 million. With no new animation competition entering the ring, Brave could find itself in a similar position, but a 273-theater decline could mean a slightly bigger hit, perhaps leaving it with $18 million.
Should Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection continue to follow in the footsteps of Madea’s Big Happy Family, it’s on its way to a hefty 60% drop, which would give it just $10 million, only earning it the 7th spot. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted has been on a modest decline since weekend one, but losing 854 theaters will undoubtedly end that. Should it drop 50%, it’ll have a $6 million 5th weekend. Despite the national pride that comes with the holiday, a 1,452-theater decline will keep Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter on its landslide, having its weekend two profits slashed by 60% for a $2.5 million third weekend out. That drop should make it easy for Moonrise Kingdom to snag the 9th position, thanks to a minimal decline that could be as small as 25% for at least another $2.5 million.
1. The Amazing Spider-Man
3. Magic Mike
5. Katy Perry: Part of Me
7. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection
8. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted
9. Moonrise Kingdom
10. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter