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Box Office Predictions: Iron Man 3 Will Be Big But Not Avengers Big

The time has come. Can Tony Stark blow away “The Avengers” solo? I’m betting against it. Despite the fact that “Iron Man 3” made a killing during its overseas early debut, domestically, it’ll likely kick off its run with a “Dark Knight Rises”-sized opening of about $160 million versus “The Avengers’” $207 million start.

With no other new films daring to go up against “Iron Man 3,” the rest of the top ten belongs to the box office veterans. With an additional 10 theaters and no new comedy (or very dark comedy) fare hitting the market, “Pain & Gain” should maintain. If it drops just 37%, it’ll take $13 million for its second weekend out. “Oblivion,” on the other hand, will certainly feel the effects of “Iron Man 3” and its 367-theater loss, possibly losing 50% again for just $9 million in weekend three.

“42” will likely continue to work its long legs, creeping up just the slightest bit yet again, going from a 35.5% loss to a 39.9% dip and now to 40% for another $6 million. However, “The Big Wedding” is bound to plummet, following up its weak $7.6 million opening with a 50% cut and just $4 million more in weekend two. Thanks to that landslide, even with a 368-theater decline, “The Croods” should have no trouble maintaining the 5th position, especially if it only drops 35% and takes another $4.3 million to the bank. Climbing up the top ten to the #6 spot will be “Mud.” The Matthew McConaughey-starrer took a strong $2.2 million in just 363 theaters last weekend and thanks to an additional 211 this time around, that intake could remain the same.

The final three spots on the top ten will be close calls between “G.I. Joe: Retaliation,” “Scary Movie 5,” and “Olympus Has Fallen,” but all three should keep right in line, especially because each is losing a good chunk of theaters. “G.I. Joe” enjoyed a lesser percent change from weekend four to five and while that number likely won’t creep back up to 47% again, it could come in at about 43%, which would let the film take another $2.1 million. “Scary Movie’s” decline has leveled out a bit and should continue doing so this weekend. If last weekend’s 44.2% drop comes down to 40%, it’ll take $2 million for its fourth weekend out. Lastly, should “Olympus Has Fallen’s” 36% weekend five to six drop get bumped up to 40% thanks to “Iron Man 3,” it’ll be looking at a $1.7 million 7th weekend out.

Shockya.com Predictions

1. Iron Man 3

2. Pain & Gain

3. Oblivion

4. 42

5. The Croods

6. The Big Wedding

7. Mud

8. G.I. Joe: Retaliation

9. Scary Movie 5

10. Olympus Has Fallen

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)

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Film producer and director best known for her work in movies such as FaceTime, Trevor, and The Professor. She has worked as an online movie blogger and reporter for sites such as CinemaBlend.com, ComingSoon.net, Shockya, and MTV's Movies Blog.

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