It looks like both “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” and “Frozen” could be heading towards another big weekend because not only do the two have the potential to show off some seriously long legs, but there are no new big releases to get in their way.
Considering “Catching Fire” only dipped 53.1% from weekend one to two, it’s unlikely it’ll lose much more than that this time around. Should the powerhouse sequel maintain that percent change, it’ll hold on to the top spot and put another $35 million in the bank. As for “Frozen,” between the lack of family-friendly competition and the abundance of holiday excitement, it could manage to retain 50% of its opening profits. Should that be the case, it will significantly close the gap but will still come in just behind “Hunger Games” with $33 million.
“Thor: The Dark World” should have no trouble holding on to #3 either. Having posted $11.1 million for its fourth weekend out, it doesn’t have all that far to fall in weekend five so will likely retain 70% of its profits for an $8 million haul. And here’s where newcomer “Out of the Furnace” could slip in. It’s only opening in 2,000 theaters and hasn’t gotten the biggest promotional push, but considering the cast and Oscar-buzz, it should accumulate a sizable profit. Should it post a modest $4,000 per theater, it’ll kick off its run with just about $8 million.
“The Best Man Holiday” managed to bring that 58.5% weekend one to two dip down to 34.6% and will likely keep the number low moving through weekend four, but that certainly won’t be the case when “A Madea Christmas” arrives in weekend five. However, before that possible landslide decline, “The Best Man Holiday” could hold on to 60% of last weekend’s intake and cash in another $5 million.
Considering “Homefront” opened with a disappointing $2,691 per theater average and “Delivery Man” is just behind with $2,252 but for its second weekend out, the two will likely swap places. Should “Homefront’s” opening earnings get slashed in half, it’ll come in with about $3.5 million whereas “Delivery Man” will probably drop just 40% and claim another $4 million.
As expected, “The Book Thief” got a nice boost from the additional 1,164 theaters, but the more important thing to note is the film’s solid $3,942 per theater average. Even if that number drops to $2,700, the film will still take another $3.3 million and come in right behind “Homefront.” “Philomena” will find itself in a similar position. After tacking on an additional 831 theaters, “Philomena” rode through its second weekend out with a $4,402 per theater average. If it drops just 30% making the move into weekend three, it’ll have no trouble locking in #9 with close to $2.6 million.
“Black Nativity,” on the other hand, is in an entirely different situation. Even though “Last Vegas” was nearly $1 million behind last weekend, “Black Nativity” only posted $2,421 per theater for its first weekend out. Considering “Last Vegas” has held on exceptionally well and isn’t due to lose any more locations in its sixth weekend out, there’s a chance that “Black Nativity” could fall fast enough to miss out on another weekend in the top ten. Should “Black Nativity’s” opening profits get slashed in half and “Last Vegas” drop just 30%, “Last Vegas” will beat “Black Nativity’s” $1.84 million with $1.88 million of its own.
ShockYa Predictions
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2. Frozen
3. Thor: The Dark World
4. Out of the Furnace
5. Best Man Holiday
6. Delivery Man
7. Homefront
8. The Book Thief
9. Philomena
10. Last Vegas
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
