Box Office Predictions: The Amazing Spider-Man 2 to Mark Strong Start for Summer 2014

Our first official summer blockbuster is here and even though “The Amazing Spider-Man 2” isn’t getting much love from critics, it’s still in good position to pull in a solid chunk of cash. Not only does “Spider-Man” have the first weekend of May all to itself, but it’s also following up a rather weak weekend at the box office so it won’t have any strong veterans to contend with. There’s a very good chance the sequel could trump the first film’s $62 million start with $85 million of its own.

Even though “The Other Woman” could be facing a 50% hit, last weekend it had enough of a lead on “Captain America: The Winter Solider” to suggest that it’ll still manage to maintain enough of its opening profits to secure the #2 spot with a total of $12 million. As for “Captain America,” “Spider-Man” will absolutely have an effect, but considering “Captain America” has had such a strong run thus far, “Spider-Man” likely won’t push it beyond a 43% weekend four to five dip, which would let it take another $9 million to the bank.

Now the question is, will that $9 million be good enough for #3? Whereas “Captain America” is losing 441 theaters, “Heaven is for Real” is gaining another 225 and if that theater boost has the same effect as last weekend’s added theaters, that means “Heaven is for Real” will only drop 36%, putting it right in line with “Captain America.” “Captain America” will still have more theaters than “Heaven is for Real,” but the fact that “Heaven is for Real” will likely have the higher per theater average suggests that it could edge out “Captain America” for the third spot.

Even though “Spider-Man” does have a family-friendly appeal, “Rio 2” is still in the clear as far as the youngest moviegoers are concerned so it should be able to maintain last weekend’s 37% change. Should that be the case, it’ll lock another $8.5 million and the fifth spot. “Brick Mansions” opened far enough behind “Rio 2” and far enough ahead of “Transcendence” to suggest it should have no trouble taking the #6 spot. A $3,595 per theater opening isn’t great, but it still shows that there is interest so the film might only suffer a 45% blow, which would leave it with about $5.5 million for its second weekend out.

“Transcendence,” on the other hand, is in big trouble. It doesn’t even have a $1 million lead on “The Quiet Ones,” “Bears,” or “Divergent,” so with this weekend’s 1,680-theater loss, it won’t manage to keep ahead of any of them and also runs the risk of falling off the top ten entirely. “The Quiet Ones” only managed to take $3.9 million its opening weekend, but with no new horror options, it could maintain rather well. If it only dips 40%, it’ll take in another $2.2 million. It’s not much, but still a solid second weekend run considering its weak start. “Bears” likely won’t manage to repeat that impressive 21.8% weekend one to two drop, but even if it dips 35%, $2.5 million will still be enough for it to steal the #7 spot from “The Quiet Ones.” “Divergent” is also due to lose some theaters, but not nearly as many as “Transcendence” so, odds are, it will push “Transcendence” down another spot. If “Divergent” loses 40% making the move from weekend six to seven, it’ll take another $2.1 million to the bank.

Now here’s where “Transcendence” could finally snag a spot. With that 1,680-theater loss, there’s a good chance “Transcendence” could take a 60% hit all over again. At this point, “God’s Not Dead” and “Draft Day” are far enough down the chart to not pose a threat, but “A Haunted House 2” will need to take another hefty hit to make room for “Transcendence.” As long as “A Haunted House 2” doesn’t maintain more than 50% of its weekend two profits, which it likely won’t, “Transcendence” will nestle in at #10 with about $1.7 million in total.

ShockYa Predictions

10. Transcendence

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)