Predictions come early this week thanks to the holiday. We’ve got two films looking to bank on the holiday weekend, Little Fockers and True Grit, and then another aiming to steal the spotlight on Saturday, Gulliver’s Travels. In the limited release department County Strong, The Illusionist and Somewhere are all scheduled to make their debuts while Black Swan continues to expand, boosting its theater count to 1,400+ and The King’s Speech grows to 700.
Little Fockers is certainly the one to watch this weekend as its performance will certainly affect the future of the franchise. Back in 2000, Meet the Parents opened with $28.6 million while the sequel, Meet the Fockers, arrived in 2004 to the tune of $46.1 million. Like Little Fockers, Meet the Fockers had a Christmas weekend opening, so if Little Fockers puts up a similar performance, it could amass $70.5 million by the end of the weekend.
True Grit may not have as wide of an appeal, but will certainly attract older crowds and anyone looking to catch up on potential Oscar contenders. Perhaps we can see something similar to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which took in $38.7 million over the holiday weekend back in 2008. In terms of the box office standings, Gulliver’s Travels will certainly be at a disadvantage, not hitting theaters until Saturday. With just two days worth of moneymaking it’ll likely barely climb into the top five especially with Little Fockers and Yogi Bear stealing some of the crowd looking for a family-friendly film. Plus, it’s hitting about 1,000 less theaters than Little Fockers and True Grit, but, then again, it could get a boost thanks to the price of 3D tickets. Should it perform similarly to Yogi Bear, Gulliver’s Travels could wind up with about $12 million.
Of the veterans, TRON: Legacy should hold up nicely. With nothing of its kind in its way and its theater count staying the same, a 40% drop would put it at about $26 million, not counting the long weekend. Should Yogi Bear take a Charlotte’s Web-type hit, a 34% drop in week two, that would put it at around $14 million for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will continue to drop, likely by another 45%, leaving it with about $7 million for the weekend, allowing The Fighter to easily surpass it on the charts partially thanks to Oscar buzz. The Black Swan should benefit from the award season as well, maybe even just dropping about 25% and taking in another $6 million.
The final two spots on the list could be tosses, but considering Tangled’s slow decline, odds are The Tourist and How Do You Know will plummet, clearing the way for that and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 to hang on to the 9th and 10th positions.
Shockya.com Predictions (Friday – Sunday Only):
1. Little Fockers
2. True Grit
3. TRON: Legacy
4. Yogi Bear
5. Gulliver’s Travels
6. The Fighter
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
8. The Black Swan
10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)