Who’s ready for some out-of-this-world action? Not only do we have an actual alien invasion movie on the way, but a dark and fantastical version of Little Red Riding Hood and a cartoon about mom-kidnapping ETs, too. If you’re looking for a touching family drama, a loving romance or even an uproarious comedy, you can forget it. This weekend it’s all about space invaders and werewolves.
The big winner is sure to be Battle: Los Angeles. It’s opening in more theaters than its competition and simply just has the widest appeal. If a miserably reviewed film like Skyline can open in over 500 less theaters with far fewer famous faces and still make off with $11.7 million, Battle: LA is bound to at least triple that. In fact, it could earn as much as $40.1 million its first weekend out, similar to 2008’s Cloverfield.
Rather than give the second position to a newcomer, it’ll likely go to Rango. Rango opened slightly less than How to Train Your Dragon and will probably suffer a bigger drop in week two, but it should maintain enough of a cash flow to beat out Red Riding Hood and certainly Mars Needs Moms. If How to Train Your Dragon fell just 33.7% in its second week, Rango could see a 40% fall, leaving it with $22 million.
Will Red Riding Hood be the next Jennifer’s Body? Probably not, but it likely won’t fare much better. Jennifer’s Body opened in 2,738 theaters back in September of 2009 and earned just $6.9 million its first weekend out. Basically, we’re looking at Amanda Seyfried and Megan Fox vs. Amanda Seyfried and Gary Oldman. Considering Red Riding Hood is geared towards the Twilight crowd, Oldman likely won’t do much for the film’s cause, but the additional 292 theaters and Seyfried’s growing popularity might. Then again, there are also those terribly negative reviews and those might be enough to deter parents from sitting through it with their kids. In the end, this one could come in with about $10 million.
Mars Needs Moms? More like, mars needs help. Even with 3,117 theaters, this one doesn’t have a shot, especially with Rango in the mix, not to mention ugly animation and a minimal voice cast. This film doesn’t even have a shot at putting up Planet 51 numbers. We’re looking at a week one income more like that of Space Chimps, $7.2 million.
The Adjustment Bureau is likely to take a modest hit, perhaps about 42.5% like Unknown’s week two drop. That would give it about $12 million this time around. Beastly, on the other hand, is bound to absolutely plummet thanks to Red Riding Hood. Red Riding Hood may not be a top performer, but it’ll certainly have enough power to take away a significant amount of attention from Beastly. In fact, it could force it to drop a whopping 60% leaving it with just $3 million for week two.
The final five spots on the top ten will be an assortment of $3 to $4 million earners. In addition to Beastly, there’s Hall Pass, Gnomeo and Juliet, Unknown and The King’s Speech. Hall Pass will likely top the group thanks to the fact that no new comedies are being thrown into the mix. There’s no doubt Gnomeo and Juliet will continue to plunge due to Rango, and Mars Needs Moms won’t help much either. That one is looking to suffer another 46% drop, leaving it with just under $4 million. Nestling in between the two could be The King’s Speech. Its slow decline should pick up, but not by enough to stop it from surpassing Unknown as well, which looks to fall another 48% whereas The King’s Speech could lose just 30%, giving it about $4 million and leaving Unknown to battle it out with Beastly for the ninth spot. My money is on Unknown.
1. Battle: Los Angeles
3. The Adjustment Bureau
4. Red Riding Hood
5. Mars Needs Moms
6. Hall Pass
7. The King’s Speech
8. Gnomeo and Juliet
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)