Box Office Predictions: Russell Brand Domination

Last weekend might have been an easy win for Hop, but this time around there will be quite a battle for that top spot as we’ve got four new wide releases making their way into theaters, Arthur, Hanna, Soul Surfer and Your Highness. Can Russell Brand do it again and hit #1 two weeks in a row? Thanks to a significantly higher theater count than its competition, it’s likely. Brand may not have Jonah Hill and Puff Daddy backing him up this time around like in Get Him to the Greek, but he does have Helen Mirren and Jennifer Garner by his side. While Get Him to the Greek lost the top spot to box office powerhouse Shrek Forever After, this time around, Brand’s only really competition is himself and considering the hype from Hop looks to abate, Arthur could wind up topping Get Him to the Greek‘s $17.6 million with a $20 million start.

Arthur probably would earn more if it weren’t opening against Your Highness. While James Franco and Natalie Portman are still riding the post-Oscar wave, that likely won’t be enough to keep Your Highness afloat at the box office. Danny McBride will be lucky to match Land of the Lost’s $18.8 million opening with this one, Your Highness perhaps only totaling $15 million for the weekend.

Moving into the action adventure category, we’ve got the latest from Joe Wright, Hanna. While this one boasts the best reviews of the newcomers, it doesn’t quite have as wide of an appeal. It could wind up following in the footsteps of something like Scott Pilgrim vs. the World and pull in about $11 million. Lastly we’ve got Soul Surfer, the film based on the true story of surfer Bethany Hamilton. Of the bunch, this film sees the least theaters, only opening in 2,100. While it boasts a wildly well-known and compelling story, the film is geared more towards younger crowds somewhat like that of Stick It. Should Soul Surfer follow a similar path, it’ll open up with about $10 million.

As for the returning contenders, Hop will top the bunch yet again. Should Brand’s animated bunny continue to top G-Force, it’ll face a 40% drop, coming in with another $15 million. Just like last weekend, Source Code should follow right behind only losing about 35% from week one to two, suspecting a steeper fall than that of another recent release, Limitless. That would give it $9 million. The gap looks to widen betweenSource Code and Insidious as horror films generally see sharper week two drops. It’s doubtful Insidious will fall as hard as The Last Exorcism and its 64% fall, but Insidious could lose about half of its week one profits leaving it with just $6 million.

Both Limitless and The Lincoln Lawyer have held up incredibly well and that stamina should let them take the eighth and ninth positions respectively while Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules falls to tenth. Rodrick Rules opened strong, but it fell a whopping 57.7% in its second week and, similar to the first film, that freefall will likely continue giving it just about $4 million for its third. As for Limitless and The Lincoln Lawyer, should both see another 35% drop, Limitless will take another $6 million while The Lincoln Lawyer will come in with somewhere between $4 and $5 million.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)