Box Office Predictions: Thor, The God Of Box Office

It’s the first weekend of May and the big ones are starting to roll in. Well, Fast Five did steal some of Thor‘s thunder having rocked the last weekend of April with a stellar $86.2 million. Can Thor beat it? It looks as though the stars will align. This time last year Iron Man 2 arrived with an incredible $128.1 million opening. While still good, Star Trek opened a year before that with significantly less, $75.2 million. Then you can also consider another May 2009 contender, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which began its run with $85.1 million or even the first Iron Man film, which opened in May of 2008 with $98.6 million. Which one will Thor find itself on par with? I’m going with Star Trek. Yes, Thor is riding the Marvel wave, but just like Star Trek was battling with a strong second week contender back in 2009, Wolverine, so will Thor with Fast Five. $75 million ain’t a bad start.

Fast Five will have no trouble securing the second spot and beating out this weekend’s two other newcomers, Jumping the Broom and Something Borrowed, however, it still will see a hefty week two drop, just like its predecessor. Fast and Furious opened with about $71 million and lost 61.1% of its earning in week two. Should Fast Five experience the same with its $86.2 million start, it’ll still come in with about $33 million.

Now, the problem with this weekend’s other new entries is that they’re both romantic comedies. While they are aiming at different audiences to a point, not only will both likely see smaller numbers courtesy of their genre crossover, but because of their poor reviews, too. Jumping the Broom could find itself on par with, as wrong as it may sound, Death at a Funeral. That one arrived with its star-studded cast back in April of last year and began its run in 2,459 theaters, a few hundred more than Jumping the Broom. At the time, Death at a Funeral was in contention with another new comedy, Date Night, as well as fending off a waning Tyler Perry film, Why Did I Get Married Too. So, will Jumping the Broom match Death at a Funeral’s $16.2 million start? No, but it could still take about $10 million, a similar performance to Our Family Wedding and that film’s $4,754 per theater average.

Unfortunately for Jumping the Broom, it’s got no chance at out doing Something Borrowed thanks to that film’s additional 800+ theaters. Something Borrowed should line up nicely with a May 2009 release Ghosts of Girlfriends Past and May 2008 release Made of Honor, which took in $15.4 million and $14.8 million respectively. When all is said and done this weekend, Something Borrowed should have about $15 million in the bank.

Rio may have outdone Rango in week one and two, but in week three, Rio fell 43.8% as compared to Rango’s 33.3% drop. Rio is going into its fourth week with a little over $11 million more than Rango and will likely maintain that lead. It’s got absolutely no new competition in the animation or children’s department, giving no reason to expect it to fall more than Rango’s week four drop, 35.2%. Should that be the case, Rio will come in with about $9 million.

Water for Elephants will likely fall into that sixth position, probably losing a little less than half of its week two earnings. That’ll give it just $5 million for week three, but considering it had such a lead over last weekend’s new films, Prom and Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil, and Madea’s Big Happy Family is on the typical Tyler Perry freefall, that should be more than enough to stay on top. Should Big Happy Family stay on par with the last entry in the Madea franchise, it’ll take a 47.3% hit and come in with about $5 million. As for Prom and Hoodwinked, they’ll barely maintain their positions in the top ten. Soul Surfer has held steady throughout its run, never losing more than 40% of its previous week earnings. Should that stay the same and Prom and Hoodwinked plummet, it could snag the seventh spot with just $2 million.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)