It all ends here? Maybe not. After a $169 million start, there’s a good chance Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 could hang on to that #1 spot. Even if Harry falls 60%, it’ll still come in with another $67 million, an amount newcomer Captain America: The First Avenger might have a tough time matching as so far this summer, the highest opening superhero film is Thor and it only posted a $65.7 million at the end of week one. There’s no reason to think Captain America will make any less, but Potter certainly has a very good shot at trumping whatever The First Avenger does pull in.
Should Friends with Benefits follow in the footsteps of the other recent comedy releases, Bad Teacher and Horrible Bosses, it could debut with about $25 million. Sure, that’s slightly under Bad Teacher’s $31.6 million start and Horrible Bosses’ $28.3 million week one haul, but Friends with Benefits is only set to open in 2,700 theaters whereas Bad Teacher started in 3,049 and Horrible Bosses in 3,040.
Poised to continue to lose roughly 50% of its profits, Transformers: Dark of the Moon is heading towards an $11 million fourth week. Lucky for Horrible Bosses, it’s got enough of a lead on Zookeeper to secure the fifth position, but with Friends with Benefits entering the race, it’ll certainly see a heftier decline this time around. Should the film lose 45% of its week two profits, it’d still come in with a notable $10 million. Zookeeper should enjoy a solid third week, perhaps maintaining its percent change of about 38% and earning another $7.5 million.
Cars 2 has held steady two weekends in a row, losing 42.1% from week two to three and then 44.7% from week three to four. As for week five, that number could increase, but not by much. Should Cars 2 drop 45%, it’ll still come in with about $4.5 million. Sadly for Winnie the Pooh its time on the top ten list could be extremely short lived. It’ll certainly get one more go, but should its week one profits get chopped in half, that would put it at just about $4 million this time around and should it face a similar loss next weekend, well, it’ll be bye bye Pooh.
Bad Teacher made a nice recovery in terms of its percent change from week two to three, but lost a little more last weekend and will likely see that number increase again this time around, albeit not by much. Should its loss get bumped up from last week’s 42.2% to about 45%, it’s looking at a $2.5 million week five. Lastly, I’m putting my money on Super 8 to pull through and steal that 10th spot from Larry Crowne. Crowne’s been on an absolute freefall since opening weekend and there’s absolutely no reason to think it’ll drop any less than 55% this time around. Should that be the case, it’ll wrap week four with a little over $1 million. Should Super 8 drop 40%, it could earn just enough to top it.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
2. Captain America: The First Avenger
3. Friends with Benefits
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. Horrible Bosses
6. Zookeeper
7. Cars 2
8. Winnie the Pooh
9. Bad Teacher
10. Super 8
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
